We have seen volatility pick up as expected, check out my Instagram posts, where I have posted various charts, I even said we will look to fill in the 2821 gap at some point. Gaps in the indices tend to get filled eventually, as you see from the chart we have filled the gaps on the downside, however, we have 3 gaps unfilled above. This analysis is not based on gaps, so lets get that out the way, we are still in a clear uptrend, until we break the 2600 level, then we can possibly say we may have topped in the U.S. indices.
With Emerging Markets and Europe in "Crash Mode", where is the flight to safety? Well, at this moment its the U.S. We are late in the cycle, I do believe the markets are at it's last stage of this rally, but we are not turning bearish until the critical levels break.
What I think in the intermediate term 3-6 months, that we may do the same pattern as January - March 2018, before we rally upto the 3,000 level. We see 3 unfilled gaps above, I assume we get to fill those at one point. Reminder, not all gaps fill, but until the trend completely breaks down, then we are still bullish.
2821 overnight has been reached back to the 50% minimum, we are starting to come off. We could be setting up for a retracement down to the 2757-09 area before we test the 2875 region. Today will be key. Stay Nimble, risk half.
Trade active
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Volatility again was abundant today, we got the 2753 as low of the day and started to come off. IF this market starts to stabilise, any bullish confirmation is to take out the 2800 level again. I am long from 2767 to target 1. 2791 2.2821 3.2854
Trade closed manually
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We have reached minimum target. Volatility still elevated at these levels. Will look to reload at lower levels, IF not above 2821.
It's all about the bond market, and the dollar... if they can stabilize, earnings bring it all back up - otherwise, pain will come.
B15H
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@Tchitchikov, agree. Earnings will be the catalyst, but most of the liquidity in the market has come from buybacks. We are very late in the cycle, although I don't see an immediate breakdown, tops don't happen in a few days they take time to develop.I think 2550 SPX is line in the sand, for the overall trend, then we could see a breakdown to test 2016 breakout level (Election).