hobo4000

Total Market Valuation Today vs 3/7/2020 (inspired by boji1)

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Thanks to boji1 for your post about using AMEX:SPY/3.795+NASDAQ:QQQ/2.065+AMEX:DIA which has been extremely enlightening and useful. Based on this chart, the overall market has seen fairly modest increases over the last 12 months. If we use the volume support going back to November '19, the current overall market has gone up 17%. Based on the last found technical support prior to the March 2020 crash, the overall market is up 20%. These numbers are by no means extraordinary as the overall market return of is generally 10% a year on average, meaning there are years with 0% gain, and years with 20%.

The specific IXIC value, on the other hand, is up roughly 45%. In lieu of all of the talk about market bubbles, I think we should look at the possibility that we are in a TECH market bubble, but overall, the IXIC, SPX , and DJI are on track. I believe that this indicates that the recent IXIC correction, no matter the cause, is an indication of the beginning of a IXIC correction to the favor of the SPX and DJI, or simply a sector rotation that is natural and possibly even overdue.

This is not to say another major correction or recession is definitely not coming, just that based on this view, it is much less likely. Don't panic! Rotate out of tech, buy other sectors, and keep cash on hand for the tech bottom.

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