rlim
Long

.82 NOV SPY 176/171 PUTS

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
31 7 0
a year ago
SPY             @ 188.2
Trading in a channel downwards.
Bigger trend is down, but at a possible support around 187.

Made lower low than yesterday, but by not much. From 187.3 to 186.9, before it started rallying up in the last half hour of the trading day. (not good for bears)

If this support fails, I expect next support to be ~181
If I am correct, I expect resistance ~195.

Cost Market Delta Theta Gamma Vega            
100 NOV 15 171 PUT 2.07 2.05 -17.74 -5.14 1.29 18.71
100 NOV 15 176 PUT 2.89 2.88 24.35 5.83 -1.66 -22.49
a year ago
Comment: The market had broke out of the planned channel, and found resistance at 192.50
It is currently ranging between 190 and 192, give and take fractional points.

Today's volume is 131M. Less than average and yesterdays, but not significantly lower.
Today it successfully tested support at 190, and closed near today and yesterday's HOD.
I think these are bullish signs, especially by holding support above 186.

I think, because we had successfully tested support at 186-187, there are bulls buying thinking the market is cheap, and shorts covering their gains. I believe jobs data is coming out tomorrow. If the market predicts the news, jobs data should be good? Unless the market is setting up for a down move by trying to short at higher prices .... (maybe too meta for me).

VIX @ 22.55
SPY @ 192.13 vol 131M
NOV 15 171/176 PUT @ .54

Ticker ,Cost, Market, Delta, Theta, Gamma, Vega
100 NOV 15 171 PUT, 2.07, 1.135, -11.61, -3.86, 1.02, 13.92
100 NOV 15 176 PUT, 2.89, 1.670, 16.78, 4.65, -1.40, -17.85

ATM
14 OCT 192 C 3.52/3.60 P 3.12/3.18
14 OCT 192.5 C 3.23/3.30 P 3.33/3.39
49 Nov 192 C 5.88/5.95 P 5.50/5.57
49 Nov 193 C 5.29/5.35 P 5.90/5.99
a year ago
Comment: If it holds above 190 tomorrow, I find it bullish.
If it moves lower, but holds above 190, still bullish.
If loses 190, I think it will move to test 187 by next week, if it doesn't tomorrow.

Looking at the volume of the charts, the bottom of the range is tested in the middle of the day with lower volume (decreasing volume), while rallying with increasing volume 'til end of the day on the last 2 days.

on 10/1, volume is lower on the LOD compared to previous day, but also lower on the rally to the close EOD.

I think these readings are still bullish.
a year ago
Comment: closed at .41
current price is at .39

VIX @ 20
SPY @ 195 at vol of 211M

vol is above average. Worried might be climatic volume. But it is at resistance point. So it may be fine, or or climatic.

But either way, I think it is better to enter short positions. If it gaps up, I am willing to short at 198 level.

ATM
OCT 192 C 4.85/4.98 P 1.80/1.86
192.5 C 4.50/4.63 P 1.95/2.03
NOV 192 7.24/7.41 P 4.26/4.34
193 6.59/6.75 P 4.60/4.69

new ATM
OCT 195 C 2.9/3 P 2.85/2.94
OCT 195.5 C 2.64/2.72 P 3.05/3.18
NOV 194 C 5.97/6.11 P 5/5.06
195 5.37/5.50 P 5.4/5.44
196 4.83/4.92 P 5.75/5.89
rlim
a year ago
Ticker ,Cost, Market, Delta, Theta, Gamma, Vega
100 NOV 15 171 PUT, 2.07, 2.05, -17.74, -5.14, 1.29, 18.71
100 NOV 15 176 PUT, 2.89, 2.88, 24.35, 5.83, -1.66, -22.49
Reply
rlim
a year ago
I am not confident about this trade. General trend is down, and major support is probably at 181 not here (6 pts below). But I see some support action yesterday and today. I am trying to play both sides of the market, so I think right now is a good time to get long
Reply
rlim
a year ago
vol today was 159M vs 3 month average 148M.
Because it failed to make lower lows on large volume (large effort, little reward), we are seeing an increase of demand, or large number of shorts covering because we are close to a possible support.
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rlim rlim
a year ago
High volume, no further movement in the downside = absorption?
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rlim
a year ago
snapshot
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rlim rlim
a year ago
increased the channel size and added 50% from 195 to 187, and 50% from 187 to 192.
Reply
rlim
a year ago
I put in a close at .41 but I think move has a chance to run upwards to 195. My readings are currently bullish.

I am worried I am playing the p/l instead of the market. But I am not sitting in front of the screen all day, so I worried I will miss to close if it reaches my destination then starts turning back down after reaching resistance.

Maybe I should use delta to give a better estimate of price at 195. I am currently using 50% of total gain. Basically playing my risk/reward.
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