Trading in a channel downwards.
Bigger trend is down, but at a possible support around 187.
Made lower low than yesterday, but by not much. From 187.3 to 186.9, before it started rallying up in the last half hour of the trading day. (not good for bears)
If this support fails, I expect next support to be ~181
If I am correct, I expect resistance ~195.
Cost Market Delta Theta Gamma Vega
100 NOV 15 171 PUT 2.07 2.05 -17.74 -5.14 1.29 18.71
100 NOV 15 176 PUT 2.89 2.88 24.35 5.83 -1.66 -22.49
It is currently ranging between 190 and 192, give and take fractional points.
Today's volume is 131M. Less than average and yesterdays, but not significantly lower.
Today it successfully tested support at 190, and closed near today and yesterday's HOD.
I think these are bullish signs, especially by holding support above 186.
I think, because we had successfully tested support at 186-187, there are bulls buying thinking the market is cheap, and shorts covering their gains. I believe jobs data is coming out tomorrow. If the market predicts the news, jobs data should be good? Unless the market is setting up for a down move by trying to short at higher prices .... (maybe too meta for me).
VIX @ 22.55
SPY @ 192.13 vol 131M
NOV 15 171/176 PUT @ .54
Ticker ,Cost, Market, Delta, Theta, Gamma, Vega
100 NOV 15 171 PUT, 2.07, 1.135, -11.61, -3.86, 1.02, 13.92
100 NOV 15 176 PUT, 2.89, 1.670, 16.78, 4.65, -1.40, -17.85
14 OCT 192 C 3.52/3.60 P 3.12/3.18
14 OCT 192.5 C 3.23/3.30 P 3.33/3.39
49 Nov 192 C 5.88/5.95 P 5.50/5.57
49 Nov 193 C 5.29/5.35 P 5.90/5.99
If it moves lower, but holds above 190, still bullish.
If loses 190, I think it will move to test 187 by next week, if it doesn't tomorrow.
Looking at the volume of the charts, the bottom of the range is tested in the middle of the day with lower volume (decreasing volume), while rallying with increasing volume 'til end of the day on the last 2 days.
on 10/1, volume is lower on the LOD compared to previous day, but also lower on the rally to the close EOD.
I think these readings are still bullish.
current price is at .39
VIX @ 20
SPY @ 195 at vol of 211M
vol is above average. Worried might be climatic volume. But it is at resistance point. So it may be fine, or or climatic.
But either way, I think it is better to enter short positions. If it gaps up, I am willing to short at 198 level.
OCT 192 C 4.85/4.98 P 1.80/1.86
192.5 C 4.50/4.63 P 1.95/2.03
NOV 192 7.24/7.41 P 4.26/4.34
193 6.59/6.75 P 4.60/4.69
OCT 195 C 2.9/3 P 2.85/2.94
OCT 195.5 C 2.64/2.72 P 3.05/3.18
NOV 194 C 5.97/6.11 P 5/5.06
195 5.37/5.50 P 5.4/5.44
196 4.83/4.92 P 5.75/5.89
I am worried I am playing the p/l instead of the market. But I am not sitting in front of the screen all day, so I worried I will miss to close if it reaches my destination then starts turning back down after reaching resistance.
Maybe I should use delta to give a better estimate of price at 195. I am currently using 50% of total gain. Basically playing my risk/reward.