My previous post had the multiple updates, and I included a particular moment when we wicked down, but were bought back up while near the Red Danger zone. This was the area that needed to hold on the small timeframes, and the wick didn't have strong coming in. You can see from the last update on my last post, that this is what tipped my hat to knowing this thing will probably crumble. (Please see related Idea below and scroll to the bottom of the many updates) Now we have support coming in at 281, once that breaks the markets will deflate. I can see us staying within a range for the next few weeks between 271.5 - 281. This could last for who knows how long.. 2 months ... 2 weeks... 2 days. I am not sure.
On the smaller time frames, we see a nice bar coming in when we hit 281, this will be our local bottom and a great place to use for entries or exits as the confirms its significance.
The rejection of the breakout today has not been confirmed, but will be confirmed if we close the day below the highs, and more specifically I like the 281 level for now. Until that breaks expect more chop.
After that breaks next major support will be our Larger Time Frame Ranges of 282-271.5.
Give a like if you want more minute by minute updates.
Nothing has really changed yet on this chart. Although, sell side volume is picking up but not spiking up. This tells me that a break of this small time frame support could be close 281.12
Currently, Price is trying to escape the bounds of this flag pattern. Let's carefully watch what happens at this very critical area.
Watch the two Boxes of Importance. Danger zone, risks bullish impulses breaking very significant resistance which will potentially lead us back to near yearly highs (286 or 290 resistance)... A break below "Happy Place" signifies the likelihood of falling back into the consolidation zone with 282 and 271.5 as our Medium TF range.
QQQ - Show signs of closing below its H&S (not the prettiest H&S, but still valid)
Both of these broad market ETF's are easily poised to break these structures, at any moment, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it all happens tonight in the futures, with a gap down open.
Bulls have to pick it up here to get anywhere
2. Conversely, We may get continuation at that exact level and break this thing out to the upside taking us to new highs and really squeezing everyone a little bit more.
* LIke I had mentioned before If we get past the danger zone and sustain above it, showing large sustained buy volume (not spiky, but even and smooth) then derisking shorts and going short term long would be responsible trading.
For the Bulls: You want to hold 281.73, consolidate high and tight, and form a pattern then break the highs with much more vigor than what just happened.
I would think that using this blue line and ascending channel would be important, and I am going to act like it didn't break any significant resistance. If IWM, DJI, MDY and QQQ all broke some significant structure/ major resistance then I would feel different ... i guess its official I must be a perma bear. ...
No clear structure break
Also, no clear structural breaks, and to me seems to be a SPY- Tradingview shake out : ) happy hunting
trying to break down
Ex: IWM- Russell 2000
SPY- Similar situation. .50 retrace since the red volume spike and price drop. We are trying to ascertain if this was bottoming volume, or an institution aggressively selling into the overly aggressive bulls. Make no mistake a volume bar like this in the middle of a trading day does not go unnoticed by the professionals.
WHich will win? RED or GREEN? ... im going red.