Okay folks, we have a wonderful bull rally here on lighter volume. Im going to watch if there is commitment to further upside at key resistance areas between the red and the blue lines. Im going to look to accumulate short positions in this area and add even more above the blue line as well unless volume kicks in. If a daily close breaks the green line on heavy volume I take my losses. This is a long term setup so stay calm if intraday volatility pushes above the green but fails to hold by the end of the day, again volume is key.
There is a lot of event risk going forward, but I only expect them to win time for the governments not to bring solutions, so my forecast maybe too quick, they can drag this drop out to two-three months. Do not forget a key date is November 6, 2012 the US presidential elections. I expect some window dressing before that, so mid September-October I would be cautious to hold onto shorts, but until than I do not think the FED would rush into announce QE. Im watching Gold and USD/JPY to see how market expectations are formed towards QE.
The gray dotted lines are weekly key levels, and the market is likely to respond at those support levels with a bounce specially if hopium is there to support it with all these talking head meetings.
Im watching EUR if we reach 1.3 there at all on all these props. Looking at last year's meetings I do not expect any long term solution just kicking the can down the street to win time. Macro numbers are not good, the only thing holding up this market is central banks pouring money into the system through monetary easing ie. printing money. Once ECB starts to print money this market will rock up, but there is a lot of politics preventing this to happen. EU is not as patriotic as the US, there is a lot of different national interest to be aligned at this stage Germany is in control. For Germany to have a weak EUR for their exports does not require monetary easing, they just have to keep the crisis rolling, money will flow into their banks and exports go well.
I watch all these events as key turning points and not directional, there will be a lot of news and noise in the coming weeks and months. I expect there will be a lot of volatility, bounces, up swings and fake outs to the upside but the generic trend will remain downwards. (Renko charting is a good way to filter this unfortunately Tradingview does not offer it yet Please go and vote getsatisfaction.com/tradingview/topics/great_job_more_price_variations for implementation) So having said all the above I watch how price reacts to the news not the news itself and see if the market remains on track with my technical plan.
Medium term 126 is a KEY area! If we break this long term upside channel tradingview.com/v/aEvYtbvB/ panic selling is likely to occur.
Comments
SubZero
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looking at the longer timeframe on monthly things are not dandy either check it out tradingview.com/v/oY484PUm/ comments are welcome
SubZero
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market is under pricing the risk going into the summit
maxtorrent
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Good analysis. Currently looking for support @ 1297-1289, if taken out 1248 is possible
admin
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Very cool analysis, thank you for adding value!
admin
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Followed.
SubZero
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price is in my short area but just before the FED, so I do not take any position into event risk, see how this unfolds tomorrow, it can still go higher. Notice the volume is dropping towards the 135.7-80 area for the last four days. If Ben offers no honey, this can get ready for the slide and Im going to look to step in on the short side. Alternatively the bulls will be "fed" and we get close to 137 even 138 but on light volume Im going to revise my short area to those numbers. I do not see it very likely but if we take out 137 on heavy volume I either step aside to short from the high of 142ish or trying to look to go long - the global macro picture does not support this break higher, but time will tell, everything for elections :)