Stock markets often enjoy a seasonal share boost during the festive period.
It's been an unpredictable year for stock markets after gloomy 2022 but all we are, traders, investors, TradingViewers are hoping for a successful end-of-year boost in the form of a so-called Santa rally.
Shares have delivered a mixed performance so far in 2023, amid SVB crisis, high inflation and interest rate hikes, so while children are compiling their Christmas lists, traders also want some sweet candies.
Traditionally, festive cheer and holiday household spending make the markets more optimistic during the holiday season, boosting investor portfolios.
But will 2023 follow the trend?
The "Santa rally", a term coined in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, "describes a tendency for the stock market to go up by 1% to 2%" over final five trading days of the outgoing year and the first two of the new one, said Forbes Advisor. This period has "historically" shown higher stock prices in the S&P 500 CBOE:SPX 79.2% of the time, says Investopedia.
What drives the Santa rally?
Reasons for the Santa rally are vary and one explanation is the cheery "end of year mood" that means investors are in more of a "buying temperament" rather than selling shares, which pushes up stock prices
Will there be a Santa rally this year?
Probably, Yes. November "capped off the best three months" for global shares since the pandemic stock market recovery in 2020, so there are a lot of hopes that stars will align, and momentum in the markets, helped by declining U.S. Treasuries rate, will push prices higher in the run-up to Christmas.
Sure, there is "no guarantee", though. Sometimes it happens. Sometimes not.
The odds of a Santa rally may be in your favor, but the "best option" (author's opinion) is to do nothing, remain invested and be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year.
The main technical graph for SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust AMEX:SPY says that we right now somewhere around 460 U.S. dollars per share (relevant to 4'600 points for CBOE:SPX Index), and just one step to break it out to reach CBOE:SPX 5'000 Milestone by the end of the year.
Just follow the major upside trend, that's been taken from Q4'22. And that is all.
Merry Christmas y'all, TradingViewers! See you in a Happy New 2024 Year! 💖💖
Trade active
⋅
Dec 08, 2023
ARE YOU READY!?
Trade active
⋅
Dec 12, 2023
The ratio between S&P500 Index Futures CME_MINI:ES1! and Volatility Index Futures CBOE:VX1! hits all time high, saying that we are at super extreme 'greed mode'.
Trade active
⋅
Dec 13, 2023
S&P500 Index as well as SPDR S&P500 ETF Trust AMEX:SPY just set new 2023 high (breaks 52-Weeks highs).
Santa Packs Are Coming.. Santa Packs Are Coming..
Watch out Look around Something's coming Coming to your town
🎅 U.S. stock market gains for 9 (NINE) consecutive days in a row since the idea was published on December 6, 2023. 🎅 No doubts, this is the longest Bullish series over many years, or even decades.. Heck, I don't know even for what period of time this is the longest upside stripe. 🎅 This publication was not elected as a Editor's Picks on Int'l version of @TradingView (I wished), but on Russian only. Anyway, as for me.. this is the greatest publication over millions.
Trade active
⋅
Dec 22, 2023
🎅 JUST 5 TRADING SESSIONS REMAIN UNTIL 2024. 🎅 WELL, LET'S THE SANTA RALLY BEGIN!
Trade active
⋅
Dec 26, 2023
👉 3 Days To Go
Trade active
⋅
Dec 27, 2023
👉 Two Days Left until 2024, and AMEX:SPY is just 5 percent below its five hundred dollar Rubicon. 👉 The Question is 5 percent gain - is it possible for AMEX:SPY just in 2 days, or not. 👉 The Answer is Yes, it is possible. It has happened already with SPY several (eight) times over the past 5 years.
Trade active
⋅
Dec 29, 2023
Financial markets are at the finish line in 2023.
And whatever the numbers at the “Closing bell”, on your monitors and in your portfolios, there is no doubt that 2023 year’s Santa Rally will go down in history as one of the most outstanding in many years.
The US market is rallying for the 9th consecutive week in a row - and this is the longest ever upside streak in CBOE:SPX over the past 20 years, since the fourth quarter of 2003.
✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Order cancelled
⋅
Jan 2, 2024
Santa's Hangover 🙄
Comment
⋅
Jan 19, 2024
Finally, its happened.
S&P 500 index as well as SPY just hit new historical highs.
Comment
⋅
Feb 9, 2024
👉 Finally, in this day AMEX:SPY hit $500 mark and SP:SPX hit 5000 points, just a day ahead of Chinese New Year. 👉 Seems Santa was Chinese-made 🤣🤣🤣
You are smoking the hopium if you think we are hitting $500 on SPY before Jan 1st lol
Pandorra
⋅
@Mr_ZeroDay, Lol. Btw, thanks for dropping up. 2023 last day 490/500 vert call spread is almost free of cost. You bet just as low as $1, to earn $1000 if spy finish this year at 500 or higher. Just one dollar dude!😅 Try!
Mr_ZeroDay
⋅
@Pandorra, You honestly think we're gonna get a 5.6% gain in 1 week? After the run we've just been on
Pandorra
⋅
@Mr_ZeroDay To believe in Santa and his Magic or not, - this is a very individual decision 😅
Mr_ZeroDay
⋅
Still think $500 by Friday? 😂🫡
Pandorra
⋅
@Mr_ZeroDay, Well, I would be "pleasantly surprised" by another strong month by the new year. Just keeping investing so far )
Mr_ZeroDay
⋅
@Pandorra god speed soldier 🫡, I’m not sure we will even break all time high this week
Pandorra
⋅
@Mr_ZeroDay, Aah, you say 'No, No, No'. I say, 'Dom Perignon' 🤣🤣 There's a lot of room yet for deliver 🍾🍾
Mr_ZeroDay
⋅
Good luck brother
Pandorra
⋅
@Mr_ZeroDay You too 🤝 5 percent gain just in 2 days - is it possible or not?! Yes, it is possible. It has happened with SPY 8 times over the past 5 years.