Version 1. (puke) gap up on Monday and then selloff to retest level of old resistance , which turned to support (short term support 377) If that was the case it would form H&S and we may dump to 372 level.
Version 2. Gap down (378) and slow grind to 381, from there another leg down (I don't like this setup as it will put more confusion)
There is a chance it may go all the way down to next support 367 (2-3 red days) , which is major one, if that's the case I expect strong bounce and bull run to new ATH ($405) I don't like Elliot, but its another indicator giving me higher probability of retracement.
Although market is bullish, I think next 3 days will be red.
Why Im bearish short term ?
Elliot Possible H&S 15min strong divergence Political unrest High greed in the market 1h RSI is high Bitcoin consolidation (sometimes there is correlation:) Dollar is bouncing from the lows In order to have a melt up run we need to consolidate at least 3-4%
If we gap up and stay above 382 then I'll go long until it reaches 400 If you zoom out, I sketched long term prediction.
MY Plan I have position in VIX, in case gap down I will sale it and reload on the fib .38 If we gap up I will buy more VIX
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VIX is up 10% in pre, lets see if it can hold and then brake above 27
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Most important level to watch for SPY is 378, if it brakes it and stays below its a strong bearish signal
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Beautiful ! It broke 377 and bears took control. As I said 2-3 days. depending how it closes, I expect another red day tomorrow.
You've summed up my sentiment completely. We're double-bottoming on the VXX right now, and momentum is increasing. OBV has been rising steadily since mid-November. I think volatility is ready to warm up again. @ $16.35 its pretty bloody cheap. The uncertainty you've outlined leads me to believe volatility is the the lowest risk trade. Will be watching it very closely in the pre-market tomorrow.
abigreen
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@SLOPolarBear, It should be interesting tomorrow.
Yeah, VIX is holding...
Im in UVXY
SLOPolarBear
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@abigreen, I love UVXY for momentum trades, but I hate holding it overnight due to the decay factor. When volatility is trending strong it's my favorite.
abigreen
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@SLOPolarBear, looks like it worked out nicely
Did you enter VXX ?
SLOPolarBear
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@abigreen, I did, right at start of the pre-market hours. But I took profits before the close yesterday. It's looking like we're gong to range at these prices. May get a mid-week dip, but the money flow is running a bit too hot for anything significant.
abigreen
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usually it's what I do as well, but got cut up with it on Wednesday ;)