It may also be this, a completion and yet again a three driver pattern in SPY , dictated by the price of oil . However, could the oil price be a FLAG in a huge , breaking the bottom channel support line next completion of the three driver pattern? The and of Oil daily are overbought, and are most likely heading to the support line shown here. But even the third driver to complete is very uncertain. The previous three driver was at the end of a huge down trend, so conditions are DIFFERENT now, and three drives may not complete. Looking for an unknown catalyst here during this consolidation period. It may be the green box which is the next earnings season. Alcoa reports on what would be the next top, the top pf the third driver, and based on earnings, do we break the support this time? I think we do, but just IMO. And there is an April mtg in April. Yellen trying real hard to keep the markets calm, why trying so hard, why now? Maybe she knows this "earnings" is going to disappoint big time? So as we hear the disappoints, we remember, the FED has it under control, Yellen will do whatever it takes to keep this market up, finger on the pulse, do not worry, keep calm, "all is well". Really? The world has many parts, most of which she cannot control...Greece, Middle East, currency wars and rumors of wars, etc. How long can our economy continue to absorb the woes of the world and the dollar keep rising without that effect hurting the US companies profits? This earnings season will TELL.