At a critical juncture while hanging on a pivot for both 200D and zero gamma.
The 200D regression trend turned up positive as the tail is now at the peak of aug bull rally.
Total S&P 500 gamma is neutral around zero gamma / 4k.
No vol events and no flows from options means lower daily distributions.
Bulls - Slow grind up here into CPI. - Low CPI/PPI Only on Mar14/15. - VANNA/CHARM flows to pick back up - Target is ~405 JHEQX Call Pin
Bears - Bears have not had a lot of help from any negative gamma - A turn below 200D would give the acceleration lower needed to go negative - Target is JHEQX Put at ~363
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inverse H&S to watch for. JHEQX call pin brings us right to neckline.
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Gap above and below.
If you're a long time reader you will recognize the gaps that I referenced since 2021.
I have been patiently waiting for the lower prices on natural gas, gasonline, rents and vehicles to have an impact on CPI/PCE, I thought that would materialize in the last PCE print, but I suppose next it is. It definitely seems like the bulls are pushing the envelope and the negative news is not nearly as dire or dour.
SPYvsGME
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@iaretheanimal, yeah. I get depressed anytime I start going over the increased inflation expectation as gov spending into higher rates causes more inflation. Hard to write a bull narrative right now without using this emoji 🤷 might as well go up.
iaretheanimal
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@SPYvsGME, That's a politicians goal, get as much funding as possible as often as possible so as to ensure the favors are returned in the form of campaign contributions, real estate deals, stock tips, speaking engagements, and jobs for friends, and family. None of them will ever be altruistic enough to vote to stop any of this.
superiorJaguar24882
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@iaretheanimal, yes, seems this is the case. sad really.
McG16
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Excellent write up as always.
Bulltrader83
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The price would still have to drop down to the 380 area to complete the head and shoulder bc the second should HAS to touch the neckline also.