TradersForecast
Short

SPY Analysis based on my proprietary indicators

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
The analysis is similar to my VIX analysis.

Indicators look bearish:
  • In top 2 panes all lines are below 0 except the purple line in the top indicator pane which swings up and down around its EMA (the red line) and next stroke is expected to be down.
  • In the bottom pane the brown line is crossing 0 downwards.

Possible concerns:
  • Since the purple line is at the level of its EMA (the red line) the swing may be above the line. However, most of the purple line has been staying below the red line. Also, in the related VIX idea it's clear that the VIX's purple line will go up (meaning the SPY purple line will go down).

Conclusion: Sell SPY! You can get my signals for free (usually before the close of US market) in my Telegram channel (see my profile for the link).

"Like it" if you like it! Add your comments, questions or concerns if you have any.

Note:
  • The analysis is base don some proprietary indicators I wrote.
  • The analysis is based on Heikin Ashi bar charts (which show the price a little different than standard candles but works better with my indicators).

DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.
Comment: I was asked on private if I reassess my stance on SPY for Tuesday (since pre-market is up). First, my analysis do not take into account what's happening pre/post market because my indicators also take into account volume which is skewed for pre/post market. Therefore, the indicators look the same as they did Friday at close.

Second, as I said in my initial post, there is a "possible concern."Since then I spotted a couple more possible concerns (an upward trend of a blue line not shown in the screenshot above and a bearish trend of VIX on weekly chart). Therefore the indicators don't look bearish in an ideal manner. SPY might go up tomorrow but I still think it is more likely to go down on Tuesday (or move little on Tuesday and fall on Wednesday)--just that not with a high confidence. I'm looking for other symbols to trade for which the indicators look more strongly in one direction than for SPY.
Comment: Also, as I said in my recent VIX idea comment update, the VIX looks bearish on weekly chart (which translates in a bullish SPY). Therefore I keep this bearish view on short term, Tuesday maybe Wednesday if it doesn't fall on Tuesday. However it may not be ideal to go short on daily chart when the weekly one is bullish.
Comment: I'm using VIX as a proxy for SPY since the SPY chart (both daily and weekly) is not so clear to read as the VIX is.
Trade closed manually: Closing now at 298.07. Taking the price shown on chart as starting point (295.48) then it's a 2.59 loss. If you didn't catch the end of day (when I made the post) and sold at the opening of next trading day then it's $3.87 profit.

Comments

Thanks for update! May i ask that in your chart above, the yellow dot on top of bar means more probability of bearish than the orange dot to the left. I noticed two colors of dot for bearish signals. I'm counting spx500 will reach 3001-2998 area then heading back down since two Cypher pattern's D are overlapping there. i purchased 5/29 spy 298 PUT by close of Friday, Hopefully that will be a winning trade.
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@wang6866, both the dotted line and the red line are two different EMAs (exponential moving averages) of the purple line (the dotted red line is more slow moving). The color is the same, what might make it look like 2 colors is the background color--that is, if there is an area behind it, the color might look a little different. Maybe I'll take the dotted line out to avoid confusion (I made it dotted so that to not be many full lines and make it too busy).

I also have a put for SPY. But see my latest update, I expect this to be short term with a bullish outlook for the week.
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wang6866 TradersForecast
@TradersForecast, Thanks!
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@wang6866, you are very welcome! thank you for the question/comment and good luck with those trades!
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Have this been back tested?
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TradersForecast TrendTraderX
@TrendTraderX, that's a very good and relevant question so thanks for it. I'll respond when I get a little bit more time.
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TradersForecast TrendTraderX
@TrendTraderX, Sorry, it took some time to respond. If you mean if this (my indicators and strategy) was tested using TV's 'strategy' feature, no it hasn't yet. I'd like to at some point though. My indicators are pretty new (and I'm still working on them and improving them, coming up with new lines and decommissioning older ones which are less useful). But I back-tested both just eye-balling the charts and going bar by bar. You can also look at the chart above and see where the direction line (blue and red) cross 0 and also look for the swing of the swing line (the purple line) around its EMA (the red line). I plan to make my indicators available for free for a limited time so you will be able to check them out yourself.

But I'm also forward-testing this. On May 22, I made both long and short predictions on my telegram channel and discord servers for the week of May 25-29 (you can go and check: https://discord.gg/wDTkRnS or https://t.me/TradersForecast). I was right 10 out of 14 predictions with a profit factor of 3.54 (that's $3.54 profit for every $1 loss). According to some (https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/whats_your_profit_factor_heres_an_assignment_for_you-657965.html) a profit factor higher than 3 is unheard of. For this week, I put my long picks here: and short picks here: . I also added and IWM idea for the week (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IWM/8671kxrk-IWM-Russell-2000-analysis-based-on-ToW-proprietary-indicators/). The week is not over yet but so far my predictions look excellent. I was right, so far, in 10 out of 13 (with 2 being losses and 1 being about a wash). I haven't calculated the profit factor yet but it is also excellent, as the 10 I was right about went in my expected direction quite a lot (LB 13.59% for the week so far, GM 11.40%, F, TWTR and SPCE around 7%). The largest loss is 6.93% and then less than 2%. So they look pretty good and I'm excited about them.
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TradersForecast TrendTraderX
@TrendTraderX, here's an update on the forward testing of my indicators and how my weekly predictions fared (https://www., , and , https://www.tradingview.com/chart/F/ICB346WB-End-of-week-price-level-prediction-for-F-SPY-GM-and-LB/). I was right 12 out of 13 predictions (6 long and 7 short ones). That's 92.3% correct. Top ones (% last Friday close to this Friday's close): F: +28.55%, GM: +18.28%, LB: +16.39%, TWTR +12.59% or even short ones (in a week when the market went up), CODX: -11.22%. Overall my right predictions went in my expected direction 121.16% and the one that didn't went the "wrong" way 8.86. That gives a profit factor of 13.64 which is really unheard of (some sites say that above 3 is unheard of). The previous week profit factor was 3.54.
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