Indicators look bearish:
- In top 2 panes all lines are below 0 except the purple line in the top indicator pane which swings up and down around its (the red line) and next stroke is expected to be down.
- In the bottom pane the brown line is crossing 0 downwards.
- Since the purple line is at the level of its (the red line) the swing may be above the line. However, most of the purple line has been staying below the red line. Also, in the related VIX idea it's clear that the VIX's purple line will go up (meaning the SPY purple line will go down).
Conclusion: Sell SPY! You can get my signals for free (usually before the close of US market) in my Telegram channel (see my profile for the link).
"Like it" if you like it! Add your comments, questions or concerns if you have any.
- The analysis is base don some proprietary indicators I wrote.
- The analysis is based on Heikin Ashi bar charts (which show the price a little different than standard candles but works better with my indicators).
DISCLAIMER: Security trading involves substantial risk of loss. My analysis is not trading advice. Do your own research first and/or consult a financial advisor. I'm not responsible for any losses you may incur following my analysis.
Second, as I said in my initial post, there is a "possible concern."Since then I spotted a couple more possible concerns (an upward trend of a blue line not shown in the screenshot above and a bearish trend of VIX on weekly chart). Therefore the indicators don't look bearish in an ideal manner. SPY might go up tomorrow but I still think it is more likely to go down on Tuesday (or move little on Tuesday and fall on Wednesday)--just that not with a high confidence. I'm looking for other symbols to trade for which the indicators look more strongly in one direction than for SPY.
I also have a put for SPY. But see my latest update, I expect this to be short term with a bullish outlook for the week.
But I'm also forward-testing this. On May 22, I made both long and short predictions on my telegram channel and discord servers for the week of May 25-29 (you can go and check: https://discord.gg/wDTkRnS or https://t.me/TradersForecast). I was right 10 out of 14 predictions with a profit factor of 3.54 (that's $3.54 profit for every $1 loss). According to some (https://tradingmarkets.com/recent/whats_your_profit_factor_heres_an_assignment_for_you-657965.html) a profit factor higher than 3 is unheard of. For this week, I put my long picks here: and short picks here: . I also added and IWM idea for the week (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/IWM/8671kxrk-IWM-Russell-2000-analysis-based-on-ToW-proprietary-indicators/). The week is not over yet but so far my predictions look excellent. I was right, so far, in 10 out of 13 (with 2 being losses and 1 being about a wash). I haven't calculated the profit factor yet but it is also excellent, as the 10 I was right about went in my expected direction quite a lot (LB 13.59% for the week so far, GM 11.40%, F, TWTR and SPCE around 7%). The largest loss is 6.93% and then less than 2%. So they look pretty good and I'm excited about them.