HandsomeSloth

SPY more downside than upside Q4 2021

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Let's not complicate things.

Technicals: I've drawn a rising wedge on SPY since COVID
- Support line is well defined with many touches
- Resistance line can be drawn 2 ways (but don't differ meaningfully)

Analysis:
Max upside from 2 Sep SPY high is either:
- 500 by EOY (10%)
- 475 by Thanksgiving (5%)

SPY is up 25% for the year and 100% since the COVID low. Meanwhile, in the last year SPY has not had a >5% correction since Oct/Nov 2020; a >10% correction since COVID, Mar 2020

--> In my opinion, a 10% correction to 400 has higher probability than the 10% upside to 500.

Fundamentals: meanwhile...
- There's news of FED officials selling stock by EOM September (kinda sus...)
- September/October are historically bad months (...coincidence?)
- Congress has investors scared because of proposed tax increases (likely starting 2022). Unclear what will pass, but pretty sure that *something* will pass
- Inflation is still considered transitory (and maybe CPI released today shows that...) but I think that's BS:
- Plastic shortage due to natural disasters in US south
- Chip shortage rages on (not aided by China's continued emphasis on communism)
- Oil and Natural Gas are spiking in price
- Ships are waiting outside of ports to get in and deliver goods, while docks are empty because goods are selling so fast

I think my old price target of 430 for SPY by EOY may come back into play

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