Technicals: I've drawn a rising wedge on SPY since COVID - Support line is well defined with many touches - Resistance line can be drawn 2 ways (but don't differ meaningfully)
Analysis: Max upside from 2 Sep SPY high is either: - 500 by EOY (10%) - 475 by Thanksgiving (5%)
SPY is up 25% for the year and 100% since the COVID low. Meanwhile, in the last year SPY has not had a >5% correction since Oct/Nov 2020; a >10% correction since COVID, Mar 2020
--> In my opinion, a 10% correction to 400 has higher probability than the 10% upside to 500.
Fundamentals: meanwhile... - There's news of FED officials selling stock by EOM September (kinda sus...) - September/October are historically bad months (...coincidence?) - Congress has investors scared because of proposed tax increases (likely starting 2022). Unclear what will pass, but pretty sure that *something* will pass - Inflation is still considered transitory (and maybe CPI released today shows that...) but I think that's BS: - Plastic shortage due to natural disasters in US south - Chip shortage rages on (not aided by China's continued emphasis on communism) - Oil and Natural Gas are spiking in price - Ships are waiting outside of ports to get in and deliver goods, while docks are empty because goods are selling so fast
I think my old price target of 430 for SPY by EOY may come back into play