Still doing my best to model the S&P 500 using trendlines and Elliott wave analysis. I am focused on using both now. The market was strong and predictable off the bottom, which made analysis "easier". This latest motive/impulse wave has been so tricky because it is weak in volume (commitment) even though it is making new highs. The corrective phases are very weak and shallow. I am determined to get this thing right, but the FOMO and irrational exuberance is making it difficult.
It seems both the trendlines (channel and wedge) are indicating a reversal. The motive wave looks to be at the end of wave 5. Both in agreement is a pretty good sign.
I am assume that this motive wave and the upcoming corrective wave are just scaled versions of the first two waves off the bottom. If I have motive wave 5 correct, then it should peak early tomorrow (gap down in morning?). I then scaled down the corrective wave accordingly in both time and amplitude. If that assumption holds, then this should be a short wave and then back to increasing. My guess would be the next motive wave will not be as strong as this past one. We will see new highs, but probably a lot smaller in scale. There is always the possibility that it pushes even higher, but the upside is very limited. It could actually drop more, but it seems like the bulls are really strong. For a big drop to occur there would need to be large institutional participation, but that looks unlikely at the moment.
Hope it helps and happy trading.
It seems both the trendlines (channel and wedge) are indicating a reversal. The motive wave looks to be at the end of wave 5. Both in agreement is a pretty good sign.
I am assume that this motive wave and the upcoming corrective wave are just scaled versions of the first two waves off the bottom. If I have motive wave 5 correct, then it should peak early tomorrow (gap down in morning?). I then scaled down the corrective wave accordingly in both time and amplitude. If that assumption holds, then this should be a short wave and then back to increasing. My guess would be the next motive wave will not be as strong as this past one. We will see new highs, but probably a lot smaller in scale. There is always the possibility that it pushes even higher, but the upside is very limited. It could actually drop more, but it seems like the bulls are really strong. For a big drop to occur there would need to be large institutional participation, but that looks unlikely at the moment.
Hope it helps and happy trading.
