Here's a new DISCOVERY - to start the uptrend from the lowest high (not necessarily the lowest low). With trend calculated in this more logical way, it makes everything get CRYSTAL CLEAR in the SPY here. This observation makes the uptrend start at an earlier date, which puts a few more days at the mode for the uptrend and allows a little more advance and then watch this:
1. The red box on the downtrend formed a 15 period mode around the 202 level, which FAILED to create the necessary drop to the 193 area. So, what did the market do? It rallied for 15 periods once it spent an entire session above 202. Look at the red arrow with 15 on top. That is when the failure-time expired.
2. The purple box is the uptrend from the "LOWEST HIGH" in January. From that point, 10 days formed around the 205 level and set up the rally for 10 periods starting on the 11th (marked with a purple arrow UP). NOTE HOW 10 EXPIRED RIGHT AT THE HIGHEST LOW OF THE RALLY. That is excellent.
3. The blue box is a mode that was forming that would launch us into the next advance, but it failed to build to 10 or 11 to continue the accumulation and that implies that the buyers have run out of power and the sellers are in control.
4. The purple box FSILED TO REACH 215 as implied by the accumulation - so that means the buyers are weak here and need to be tested.
5. NOTE my proprietary RangeMove (RgMov) indicator which is FLASHING A VERY OMINOUS DANGER SIGNAL because it has gone to a 2-month LOW while the price action is very close to a 2-month high. Why is this happening and what does it mean? It means that lately, the price action has been mostly on the downside. If you look at the price action since Feb 17th you will notice that mostly the entire day of trading has been on the downside. It gaps down, and then trades up from there, but the net-net of it is that the trading action is to the downside. That IMPLIES heavy selling by someone. It could be anyone at this point, we don't really know.
6. NOTE the Range Expansion to the downside today and on Tuesday. These are signs that the "PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE" is DOWN.
So everyone, there is support down at the last mode at 205, then at the 15 period mode at 202. If it punches through there then look for 193, which was implied in the last decline.
This is quite a collection of events collaborating the decline we are in at the moment. STAY TUNED!!!
Comments
IvanLabrie
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Lowest high/highest low, brilliant.
Lowest accepted fair value, with more traders involved than the lone spikes.
Great chart Tim.
timwest
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The bears weren't in control because they didn't contain the market at a lower level for the entire day. That's the key. The same with the ridiculous spike on the chart UP on the left side of the chart.
DickvanK
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Where can I find Range Move?
timwest
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It is part of a package of indicators I have in my "KEY HIDDEN LEVELS" scripts. I gave the basic concepts of it in the text of the description above.
timwest
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"5. NOTE my proprietary RangeMove (RgMov) indicator which is FLASHING A VERY OMINOUS DANGER SIGNAL because it has gone to a 2-month LOW while the price action is very close to a 2-month high. Why is this happening and what does it mean? It means that lately, the price action has been mostly on the downside. If you look at the price action since Feb 17th you will notice that mostly the entire day of trading has been on the downside. It gaps down, and then trades up from there, but the net-net of it is that the trading action is to the downside. That IMPLIES heavy selling by someone."
timwest
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Check out the price action since Feb 17th. The market trades mostly to the downside.
IvanLabrie
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Also look at how Nikkei is apparently topping, same as DAX is...and all yen pairs are gaining strength, even usdjpy shows a pretty painful advance as of late.
A-shot
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Update on this one would be great
A-shot
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First! Indeed, it is now in really bad shape!
A-shot
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Would note that it goes in unison with many other indexes leaning lower. Gold broke uptrend support. For now i am waiting for a healthy correction.
Lowest accepted fair value, with more traders involved than the lone spikes.
Great chart Tim.