supere

TAKE 2: Rhythm of a bear market (short term outlook)

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AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
I have readjusted my time fractals and short term price targets based on the very extended bear market rally since the March 26th bottom. Due to how the market has behaved and where prices have gone, I now believe we will see a 5 wave elliott structure in the second down leg that could last well into 2021. Thank you for your interest everyone and I will again try to make a running daily commentary to help myself and everyone ride the waves down and up.

Please also note that this picture is a "short term outlook" for me. I primarily look at centurian, decadian and yearly cycles in the market, so please do not bet your farm on short term puts because of my posts. I disclose that I suffered some damage during this bear market rally, but I am primarily positioned for the extreme case that the crash may not happen until all the way to 2022. I fully and humbly recognize that nobody is a market prophet and that I could be completely wrong, even though I have spent tons of research and effort in putting together this (hopefully accurate) picture.

My first and foremost warning has always been to get out of the market because we are likely entering a centurian downturn. Playing the possible generational wealth building opportunity comes secondary to safety.

Good luck all!

Comment: Since all of my topping signals well exceeded expectations, with most exceeding 10 year or historical records, I expect the second leg of this crash to be at least as serious as the first. We'll give it 21 days to run down before reassessing the situation.
Comment: Hope you all had fun today! I will start analyzing bottoming technicals again starting tomorrow. Overall, today should be day 5 of 21 of the next down leg.
Comment: I made a mistake and said that yesterday was day 5 of 21 of the next down leg. It was actually only day 4. Based on time fractals of the previous down leg, we may not see any significant bound until day 8. Based on the current charts, we may break down to the 2700s before this bounce takes place. However, these are only educated guesses assuming that the bear market has resumed.

With respect to sentiment, the p/c ratio is still extreme low suggesting way too many call options are in the open market. Therefore, we should still be far from bottoming. Also, Robinhood users are also still buying up garbage stocks in a frenzy despite yesterday's warning drop.

Supere's Bear market rule of thumb #1:
Close large profits on gap downs. The market typically rallies every day until around European close (1:30 EST) where new shorts can be opened.
Comment: Sentiment is cleared for devastation round 2 today. Might happen.
Comment: This will become a great site for market sentiment traders like myself: https://robintrack.net/popularity_change... It shows people on Robinhood do not care about resistance levels, volatilty, sentiment, what is happening in the world or yesterday's crash. They just keep buying more and more and more, giving away all their money to the institutions that I believe are about to take this whole market down.
Comment: Morning PCC at 0.75 meaning the bulls don't see any danger at all still. We should be able to just enjoy the ride down. Today is Day 6 of 28.
Comment: Today's action shows that bulls are still strong and enthusiastic. More patience required. Bearish scenario is valid as long as the prior rally highs are not taken out.
Comment: Could be the final rally here completely jacked up on low volume, low liquidity steroids. We shall see.
Comment: So far, it seems to me as if the tide has turned. If last Thursday's 7% drop was the first signs of the tsunami, then we should see the heart of this tsunami within two weeks. I believe it will be the most devastating and violent wave the world has ever witnessed.
Comment: P/C is still sitting at extreme lows this morning but TRIN has rising to 3.5. This suggests bulls are still in FOMO buy everything mode while some heavy institutional selling is occurring in the background. We are likely to see the next tsunami wave tomorrow imho.
Comment: No change from yesterday's comment. 1 day delayed.
Comment: No change.
Comment: Still no change in my view at today's close. Sentiment signals all scream "we have topped and this is the biggest market hindenberg we have ever created." We've trended down for 9 days now. Just no big moves yet. So we wait yet again.
Comment: More red flags. Core commodities like lithium, steel and copper headed down again. Big mall in U.S. failed to pay mortgage for the second time. One day this train I'm on will go...
Comment: They finally pulled the rug (after hours of course!) Congrats for those who waited patiently so far. The next down wave train should begin shortly and it should be very fast and exciting!
Comment: If I am correct, we should wake up to a blood bath on Monday and an ocean of red waves for the next 5 weeks.
Comment: We have been trending down for 12 days now. Since the heart of the tsunami still has not arrived after so many days, we are either setting up for an ENORMOUS downside structure, much bigger time fractal than the Feb-Mar drop; or this is yet another bear trap.
Comment: And so... FEDAGGEDON begins. Downtrend day 13/28.
Comment: The tsunami resumes. I am modifying my day count to a possible 45 day pattern now. Today should be day 15 of 28 or 45. Will try to pinpoint one of those fractals as things progress.
Comment: Confident it is a 45 day cycle we are playing out now after analyzing all sectors.
Downtrend day 15 of 45 completed. Have a great weekend all!
Comment: Day 16 of 45. Likely a terrible bull trap in the making today.
Comment: Day 17 of 45. No change in my view.
Comment: Day 18 of 45. No change in my view. Trap trap trap.
Comment: Trap triggered end of day. 23 days to bottom.
Comment: Day 20 of 45. It is imminent now that bears seize the next opportunity else the downtrend may be lost.
Comment: Day 21 of 45. With 10 minutes left until the close, it looks to me like the bears have seized on the opportunity and are ready to throw this market off the cliff now. We should see the true strength of this downtrend in the final 24 days.
Comment: Day 23 of 45. Although today's decline looks small on the surface of SPY, critical sectors such as energy, financials and transports got smoked. Imho, the downtrend is accelerating and will soon take the form of the Feb-Mar waterfall decline. Tech and mainly FAANGM are the only stocks really holding the market together by a thread.
Comment: Day 25 of 45. Today's 8 pt reversal suggests the heart of the tsunami crash wave has arrived. The next 21 days should be optimal opportunities for bears. All other market players should wisely step aside or risk being annihilated in a very short span of time.
Comment: Day 27 of 45. Running out of time again. MRNA final fake pump? I think I've lost my bearings now. All technicals overbought. All sentiment signals at extremes. Dark pool data suggesting crash straight ahead, yet market is saved by another overnight gap. Not sure how many more times I can grit my teeth through these rallies now. It certainly has been a long haul.
Comment: Day 28 of 45. Is the reckoning about to begin? Market seems to have reversed at the exact price target where most of the remaining shorts were squeezed out and everybody jumped onboard the ship to all-time-highs. Unfortunately, I think that ship is named the TITANIC. What will happen if it hits the iceberg?
Comment: Day 30 of 45. Sorry, but today I will have to say I just don't know. Euphoria has shot past year 2000 nasdaq bubble highs now, but who knows how high it can go? At this point, the wisest are probably those who exited to cash and have stayed there.
Comment: Day 33 of 45. Possible end of the bubble. Down cycle should take longer than day 45 now, but will just keep this count for now until we have better confirmation.
Comment: Day 34 of 45 OR alternate count Day 3 of 32.
Been a long road for the bears, but this week's turn might finally be the peak of the super cycle *everything* bubble. As I said many weeks ago, bullish speculation, sentiment and technical overbought values have broken all historical values. Therefore, there was no roadmap to follow. However, if the top has been hit, then it should be the greatest top in the archived history of the world's markets. If my view is correct, next week should start with a bang to the downside. Have a great weekend, all!
Comment: Day 36 of 45 or Day 5 of 32
The turn should be soon and the dark pool index suggests it will be the deepest and most violent correction yet: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Seems to me that big money is beginning the sell-off using stealth tactics, selling tech one day while buying garbage stocks; selling garbage stocks the next day while buying tech. In this way, they can exit their final positions without influencing the major indices significantly until it is all too late for the mass to respond.
Comment: Day 38 of 45 or Day 7 of 32.
Hindenberg going to blow.
Comment: Nope. Nothing. Back to square one again.
Comment: It's possible that we may still be 1 or 2 weeks away from the edge. German and Japanese markets look like they are starting to drop this week. In February, these markets crashed about 2 weeks before the USA markets.
Comment: Market action is very unstable. Cliff edge may be here today. Monitor carefully. SPX loss of 3200 level would be significant.
Comment: We may have topped yet again after completing the ultimate bull trap and bear killer rally. It could've been a triple zig zag correction. Will post a new wave map if the downtrend continues for 3 days.
Comment: Bond yields are shooting up incredibly fast. The next leg down could still be just around the corner. Be prepared.
Comment: The S&P hit new ATHs today, basically eliminating my original view that the bear market started in February, at least for this index. However, the NYA, DJI and many sub indices have not achieved ATHs. It is all still very divergent and bizarre out there, but unfortunately technicals have proven this view to be incorrect for the time being. Seems that the bulls won another round with the help of central banks yet again. Who knows when price discovery will ever return.
Comment: Longest and most powerful downtrend since March so far. Let's see if this one is it finally.
Comment: For everyone that has supported me throughout, I spotted a very big warning in the market today. Due to this, the much delayed crash could be just around the corner now. What was the signal? It appears some BIG ENTITY completely loaded the market with SPY puts spanning from today until November 20th. Be on the alert.

Comments

nothing
+1 Reply
The only thing the Fed can do is print more money. Gold's gonna go through the roof. stocks/funds/markets may look good on paper, but the value of the dollar can't hold the line if they continue to print more of it.
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supere Incogniteaux
@Incogniteaux, Yep, either way it goes there will be damage. I was just hoping for the better scenario in which the market came back to reality. If it doesn't, then you are right, money will soon become worthless.
+1 Reply
@supere, Yep. But the chart will look great! Record highs!
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Considering not even tech is holding SPX up, I'd say this is a warning sign, certainly. Now imagine tech starts to sell off as well...
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Do you have any updates on your idea? Thank you.
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Great work. Pretty thick stomach was needed to hang tight through this BS rally. Have a great weekend
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@supere: thank you for your posts!
based on your comments, do you see the rug pull happening tomorrow?
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supere grassyboy
@grassyboy, It's been really challenging pin pointing the exact top, so all I can say is it might be in the next couple days. Right now, we have trended down for 9 consecutive days, which is longer than anything since the Mar 26th lows, so it gives some confidence that the trend has changed. However, all the usual technical and sentiment topping signals have been breeched long ago, so we just have to wait it out and position accordingly.
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supere grassyboy
@grassyboy, The next 3 weeks should be an ocean of red if i'm correct.
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