September was a perfect wave A down while October was wave B up. I projected the original top for Friday but we were still shy of 460. Today's open got us there. Wave B quickly retraced 100% of wave A without its internal 5 wave pattern so I set the next stop around 460.58 which was the Fib 123.6% extension. Additional wave analysis of wave C's internal 5 wave structure revealed two potential end points for wave 5. The first top would have been around 458.49 which would have been 100% of internal wave 3, the second is 114.6% of wave 3's movement at 460.71, with the third probable top at 123.6% at 462.08.
Today we saw a top at 460.70, which was 1 cent shy of one projected top and 12 cents higher than the first projection based on the main wave A's movement. ***IF THIS HOLDS*** we likely witnessed a correction wave described as an irregular/expanded flat. These typically have the final wave C move 123.6% to 161.8% of wave A's movement.
This puts the conservative bottom (123.6%) at 419.83 with a potential bottom as deep as 409.25. While this would not quite be a 10% drop, this will certainly catch all the bulls off guard. I think November will be red and maybe into or through December as well. I have typically found the length of wave C to be nearly that of A, but it is likely to fluctuate as it moves on. The current projection has us red into the first week in December but time will tell.
CAUSES: Fed red? Inaction in Congress? Does Congress pass tax regulations forcing investors to pull out gains this year at a cheaper tax rate before major hikes next tax year?
I ultimately have the markets rebounding after this December bottom. However, the next drop around September-October 2022 will be very deep (not catastrophic yet--maybe the year 2029).
Or A wave is a wave 4 we are on wave 1 of wave 5 up much higher prices
StockSignaler
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@Shortatwill, looks like today's close will determine as market briefly passed the highest target I hoped to see. Anything higher and you could be correct
shameek12
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@StonkSignaler, So does today's move/price level invalidate the reversal trend possibility,
StockSignaler
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@shameek12, That would be the thought at this point.