KrunchieKilleen
Short

INDEXES: SHAPE OF THE DOWNTREND

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
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The shape of the Downtrend
whats your outlook over the next 1.5 years?

I am thinking we might retest the high from Jan, fail, bounce around this upper trend area and eventually roll over to that $210-$220 support line..
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KrunchieKilleen JordanSaltzberg
@JordanSaltzberg, in response to your comment I have posted another chart: a simple analysis of the period since 1995 as a series of cycles. Each of the previous cycles was determined by a significant event (Dot-com burst, banking crisis, QE and Zero Rate). The present down-pressure (Rate rise) is insufficient to drive the prices all the way down in one go. January 2019 could show another peak, making a twin to the recent one. If it does not rise above it, then the second leg of the down-trend will set in. The trigger, some upset in world trade, perhaps, has yet to manifest.
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