Yesterday, the S&P 500 failed on a breakout of an a-b-c pullback pattern - where the swing high point b was defined as the breakout level (see link below to my previous post). As often happens after a failed breakout, the market then proceeded to move strongly in the opposite direction, with the S&P 500 closing down for the day.
That late day reversal now puts the uptrend from the Feb. 9 low into question. Yesterday's reversal took out a key prior swing low at 270.5 (point c in the a-b-c pullback pattern, based on SPY). However, the 50 period MA is still angling upward on the 60 minute chart, which suggests the uptrend is still intact. Conversely, though, momentum is declining on the higher time frame 180 minute chart, as indicated by a downward sloping MACD.
So the evidence is mixed on whether the uptrend is intact or a new downtrend has taken hold on the 60 minute timeframe. I'm stepping aside until price movements provide clearer guidance.
That late day reversal now puts the uptrend from the Feb. 9 low into question. Yesterday's reversal took out a key prior swing low at 270.5 (point c in the a-b-c pullback pattern, based on SPY). However, the 50 period MA is still angling upward on the 60 minute chart, which suggests the uptrend is still intact. Conversely, though, momentum is declining on the higher time frame 180 minute chart, as indicated by a downward sloping MACD.
So the evidence is mixed on whether the uptrend is intact or a new downtrend has taken hold on the 60 minute timeframe. I'm stepping aside until price movements provide clearer guidance.
