ucsgears

SPY - Stage Trade Setting up?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
727 18 7
a year ago
General market started of by a rally in the Curde Oil             / Energy Sector, followed by supports from the Financials and other Sector bounce from oversold.

As we wait for the FED meeting next week. There could be possible opportunity to down side, from short term (IMO).

a year ago
Comment: So far, Just as planned.
a year ago
Comment: ECB President Draghi said QE to continue until Sept. 2016 or beyond if needed and the ECB to re-examine degree of stimulus in Dec.
a year ago
Comment: Previously Updated, ECB quantitative easing has not stopped. What really happened was, After yesterday close, I had a setup long generated from one of my fav strategy on a 6hr chart - Did not expect this a rally, But was expecting a retracement to the trendline. Unfortunately, it made a new high (thanks to the ECB QE announcement). Had to close the starter position. Lesson from here is - Position sizing (glad i followed my rule). Google and Amazon reported earnings as well, adding more fuel to the market after hours. Over all, I will start focusing back on the Sectors, until I find a setup with the Index.

What do I really expect from here?
1. QE is on full throttle, the deflation in US economy has been on watch since the ZB (Bonds) haven't sold off during the recent reversal move on the SPX.
2. I am not certainly expecting Dollars to explode. Certainly SPX can pop.. The Shorts covering will have to fuel that rally. Atleast for a couple of days.

snapshot
a year ago
Comment: What I expected was a move like this......

snapshot
B120626
a year ago
we are pretty overbought at these levels, but the indexes can be held up from big boys buying the heavy weighted stocks. hard to forecast next move here, but earnings are showing some of the cracks.
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ucsgears PRO B120626
a year ago
I take trades with strict rules. It is just my idea. Instead of taking the SPX short side, i would rather chose a Sector that did not participate this move.
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jangseohee
a year ago
whole hips of Gaps at 180-185 that is not filled ^_^
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
a year ago
Sarcasm !!! huh!!!

Let me show you some more gaps -
snapshot
+1 Reply
jangseohee ucsgears
a year ago
come on i don mean to pass cynical remarks just some facts.. as those in the 180ish gap are nearer right? ^_^
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
a year ago
IMO, It may not hit that, if it pulls back this time. To far from the market perspective. VVIX is normal and VIX is normalized. Without the acceleration, its hard to say.
+1 Reply
jangseohee ucsgears
a year ago
yep
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
a year ago
The Sector this run rotation was so precise with the market. It is a rare occurrence. I took a starter position early and had to close it for a scratch. Will take another starter soon..
+1 Reply
2use ucsgears
a year ago
Starter bullish position? and at what level will you consider opening now?
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ucsgears PRO 2use
a year ago
I am not sure, on how you interpreted my projection as bullish.
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2use ucsgears
a year ago
So you are not playing the leg up now, but will take a starter position in the leg down i guess
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ucsgears PRO 2use
a year ago
Got in early in the morning. @ Top of the Shoulder.
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B120626 ucsgears
a year ago
so you think it will retrace that trendline from underneath, and then fail hard? by the way, glad to see you back on your blog :)
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G13Man ucsgears
a year ago
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/au190k0f-Gaps-on-the-spy-since-2009/
Gaps on the spy since 2009

my spy gap chart with zoom ins
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G13Man G13Man
a year ago
looks like the whole chart and close ups can not be linked from my spy chart post ! , sry
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matjaz70
a year ago
At the time when you put the post I was agree with you. But market is alwas right. :)
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ucsgears PRO matjaz70
a year ago
Yep. Thanks for pointing out......
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Trance-Man
a year ago
Care to update this based on todays move, factoring in after hours, etc. Thank you, curious.
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