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Tomorrow we have fresh jobless claims numbers out, so I expect increased volatility, particularly if we see a higher print than last week. Sentiment can shift in an instant, so be prepared for some larger moves heading into the weekend, especially after the massive short squeeze we saw over the last couple of weeks.
Thanks for your time today guys, and have a great evening. Cheers, Michael.
I would like to think that this market could not get any more ridiculous, but I went back and took a look at the run up to the great depression. We barely scratched the surface of how crazy it can get. At that time the peak was something like 120% above the 200 day SMA. Right now we are only at 5% and the big push off the March low was around 15%.
Also, I found this interesting tid-bit. "During the two-plus years of the Spanish flu pandemic, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was never more than 5% lower than its level on March 4, 1918, the date some have given for the start of the crisis. In November of that year, in fact, at the height of the pandemic’s second and deadliest wave, the Dow was 11% higher."
I like you charts and your analysis/comments. Keep it up. The bears time will come, some day.
Also, the potential for stimulus from a republican senate and a lame-duck president is not likely. Maybe republicans in the senate will play ball for 750 - 1000 million but not more. I could see Trump pushing for it to bolster his public image. I would say there's a 99% chance that Trump seeks the Republican nomination in 2024 (we'll know soon; he hasn't stopped campaigning since 2015 and will likely announce a bid rather than conceding the race), so I don't think he has the incentive to tank the market in any meaningful way even if he still has the influence.
For investors to continue to ignore the lack of stimulus the employment data has to get worse or stagnate for a couple of months.
All my opinion of course; I'm a new trader, but I'm more familiar with politics.