The current implied volatility is at 33%/year So that converted into daily is 2.08%
Since we are in need of the open price for the highest accuracy, I am going to take the current price which is 398(you can also wait for the opening price and take +- 8.1 points from the open candle value)
So based on that our channel for today is going to be compressed with a probability chance of 85% within TOP 406 BOT 390
From fundamental point, today we have no big volatility news that can impact our asset.
At the same time the current values are expected to be sidemarket/bullish.
At the same the weekly expected channel top and bot values for SPY were TOP 423 BOT 386
We have a gap fill at 410.50 so why would the top be 406...
exlux99
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@biasedsenpai, because IV for today is ~8 points, calculate from the open price and thats how you will get the top and the bottom with a very high margin of accuracy