SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
SPY Weekly Recap Outlook
We didn't take any trades on SPY this week because none of the key levels or scenarios we had mapped out were triggered.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Trading Desk Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 13
Winning Trades: 10
Losing Trades: 3
Win Rate: 77%
Index Options: 0 Trades
Futures Desk: 3 Trades (3 Wins — ES)
Equities / Stocks: 10 Trades (7 Wins / 3 Losses)
Result: Another green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
Long term: Risk on
Mid term: Risk on
Short term: Risk on
A warning: Macro liquidity conditions remain fragile, and a negative news catalyst could still trigger a sharp downside flush. Geopolitical risk, particularly the Iran conflict, remains elevated, while the macro environment continues to show significant compression and imbalance.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
Flip Zone (758.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 749.
Long Scenario 2
Demand (749.75) This is the second demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 745.
Long Scenario 3
Flip Level (767.75) This is the Flip Level for SPY to watch. If price breaks above this level with a strong 4-hour candle close and subsequently retests the level, a long setup can be considered.
Trigger: Price must retest the level from above and produce a bullish 1-hour or 15-minute candle close back above the zone for a more aggressive entry.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 765.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
SPY Weekly Recap Outlook
We didn't take any trades on SPY this week because none of the key levels or scenarios we had mapped out were triggered.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Trading Desk Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 13
Winning Trades: 10
Losing Trades: 3
Win Rate: 77%
Index Options: 0 Trades
Futures Desk: 3 Trades (3 Wins — ES)
Equities / Stocks: 10 Trades (7 Wins / 3 Losses)
Result: Another green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
Long term: Risk on
Mid term: Risk on
Short term: Risk on
A warning: Macro liquidity conditions remain fragile, and a negative news catalyst could still trigger a sharp downside flush. Geopolitical risk, particularly the Iran conflict, remains elevated, while the macro environment continues to show significant compression and imbalance.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
Flip Zone (758.5) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 749.
Long Scenario 2
Demand (749.75) This is the second demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 745.
Long Scenario 3
Flip Level (767.75) This is the Flip Level for SPY to watch. If price breaks above this level with a strong 4-hour candle close and subsequently retests the level, a long setup can be considered.
Trigger: Price must retest the level from above and produce a bullish 1-hour or 15-minute candle close back above the zone for a more aggressive entry.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 765.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Trade closed: target reached
Long Scenario 3 worked pretty well.Price activated Long Scenario 3 during Thursday's AM session after breaking out above the Flip Level.
If we had traded the Flip Level breakout scenario, Long Scenario 3 would have captured an 8-point, 1% move higher.
A very successful and highly profitable scenario.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.