nmike
Long

SPY monthly update

BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
2407 14 14
I have drawn a reference channel using the 3 pivots as shown on chart, then I cloned it. I also drew a box from the bottom of reference channel to the SPY             TOP of 2007. Looking back, you can see that SPY             turning points happened at or close to channel boundaries. Now, since we no longer have an historical pivot high we can now use the cloned channel boundaries as future price targets and as likely support points going forward.One interesting thing is that if you draw a trend line along reference channel bottom and then you clone it, the Tradingview software automatically finds the next pivot and duplicates that distance going forward, nice.Fibonacci levels are a great addition to cloning.
Remember that tradingview adds back in dividends by reducing historical prices to reflect a dividend paid. So, once a stock has paid out more dividends then the stock price, the stock price will be negative. :-) Remember that markets have memory and are like anyone in that they change as soon as you think you have them figured out. Expecting a pattern to keep recurring is the least likely possibility from my 26 years of market watching and forecasting.
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hello Tim, thanks for the commentary, it is worth noting, however I only analyse what I see on the charts and I don't take dividends into account. Patterns repetition has worked for me and most of them are based on FRACTAL GEOMETRY and SYMMETRY, furthermore I always use other analyses to confirm my patterns. As you can see on this monthly chart I have the 10MA as an example of confirmation.
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This was the most unique clone reference yet. We get to see how tops form using a clone
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Thanks for the reply Mike. What is great is that we can see what you are thinking and either agree or disagree. I agree with pattern, trade setup, confirmation, stop placement, take trade, analyze results. Establish probability of profitable trade. Analyze expectancy. Expectancy = P(W)*(Avg Profit) - P(L)*(Avg Loss). I'll take any trade that has a solid expectancy as long as there are enough trades in the system to expect a profit over time. I'm a big fan of symmetry of time and sometimes a symmetry of price as I have been hand-plotting charts for decades, which gives your subconscious mind a tremendous amount of data to process and to find patterns. Thanks for sharing your work with all of us and I appreciate your kind reply.
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I think Tim does have a point. SPY is not as reliable as the NYSE or SPX charts. SPY does pay a dividend and volume growth in ETFs such as SPY distorts the chart. I would like to see what you are charting in the NYSE @nmike
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what is that next target 160.50 ?
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Does the incline suggest a parabolic peak. Compared to the last two tops the third incline is the steepest in your clone reference chart.
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......CLONE HIT
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>>>>> second CLONE trend line target reached,if we break current CLONE trend line next target is the new red trend line CLONE
snapshot
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Great work
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nmike MOD sublimares2
@sublimares2 thanks,more great ideas to come.
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>>>> long term upside trend is still intact,so far we are experiencing a short term correction as seen in daily and weekly frames
snapshot
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