Hello. Despite this weeks amazing rally, I believe it's too much too soon. The yields are continuing to rise and could be as high as 1.7% by late Monday/Tuesday. How could it affect the market? Some economists are predicting that a 2% yield on the 10 Year will result in a 20% correction in stocks. This is in line with the bearish megaphone that has formed. There's a possibility that we are approaching a peak. The rejection could take us quite close to the economists warning of -20%. 350 could happen which is around a 18% correction.
What do you think? Leave your comment below. I believe we have 1 more dip before truly breaking out of this. For now, I remain short and will load more puts should we try to push past 395 to reach 400. At 400, I will go all in on puts.
Currently holding puts for 390 strike by friday.
A circulating idea has been that we will have >2% yield by June.
Trade at your own risk.
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Looks like we had a bit of a jump from JPOW/The Fed comments, but yields called them on it. Expecting much more volatility ahead. Cash is probably the safest position.
Trade carefully. I am not an expert. However, I do believe we could drop to 3850 tomorrow with France now locking down.
I'm right there with you, 389 puts for 3/19. Today hurt badly, that huge double rally at the end really took me off guard. I don't see any reason for it, and I don't see any reason why yields wouldn't continue to increase. If yields popping to 1.6% last week took the nasdaq down 10% and spy down to 375, I find it hard to believe everyone has suddenly stopped caring about yields already back at 1.63% and increasing. Really hope I'm right about next week or we're in trouble.
Pluripotent_Pixel
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350ish is about where the 200dma is. I would love to see that retested.
true_Punisher
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I am waiting for my new stimulus so I can buy AAPL, AMZN, FB once I get my stimulus and tranfer to my brokerage. They will need to SHORT SQUEEZE huge for gaving monster Q3, Q4 eps/revenues results. No reason this low but hedgies game. The truth will prevail and lead again. So I am eager to get that stimulus to buy stocks AMZN AAPL, FB
economic activity should pick up due to vaccines and people do not sell off the market when given stimulus.
qqq corrected a lot, spy corrected very little due to people grabbing covid beaten stocks, dfen,drn, cruise lines will continue rising and drug spy up
as to the chart it looks like one more of these corrections we had in June, sept, November