Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range?
That is a suicide, assured.
See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day.
That Chart is simply NASTY.
The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower.
It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will become a brushfire.
Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes.
Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex.
Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity.
Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022.
Technically the Markets do not support Buyers.
Liquidity does not support Buyers.
Margins do not support Buyers.
Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead.
Yields do not support Buyers.
The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade,
I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold.
Is there a setup here?
No, there is however a great many trades.
Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day and Intra-week.
It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given.
3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners.
VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of... arrived.
Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times.
You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in TLT.
Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO will not provide lasting support.
Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again.
Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension.
Sentiment - Terminal.
In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not?
Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate.
Fixed.
Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly, but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday.
Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into March of 2024.
The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on 10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve.
My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6% into 2023.
It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022. 2019/2020 is the present Base.
I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention.
Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time filling the Gap at 235.
The Fed set a SPY 240 objective or more an assumption in a model? I will defs read this. Very nasty out there. I'll admit I got caught in that closing whipsaw. Maybe I should get a tattoo which says "DO NO TRADE ON FED DAYS" or. DNTOFD
HK_L61
⋅
@BoyPlunger91, Read the FSR - it clearly states they want to reduce Equities 50%. The NQ will be far more. BTW there is a SPY Gap @ 230.51.
Vixtine
⋅
OMG..."It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given." BYND funny :)
@wolffarchitecture, Ha, Occam's Razor - the simple truths are best. Good to see you again Wolff.
Peterson
⋅
@HK_L61, I thought they would go 1.00, but .75 with a kick to the nuts ( more hawkish than regular hawkish) may suffice.
HK_L61
⋅
@Peterson, Powell will grind it out over time and be consistent with the Wars on Inflation, Growth, and Employment.
This assures Yields will simply grind higher, regardless of BOJ interventions - selling USTs. The Bank of Japan's attempt to Prop the YEN will fail, short term the ripples will spread - we'll see how the rest of Asia handles their exits.