the_sunship
Short

Spy - trendline target

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
A no frills chart. This pitchfork and hidden trendline has been framing the price for weeks. I think yesterday was another bull trap and we'll have a lower low today or tomorrow. Margin calls should make the selling very intense, which I know we have seen, but we should have a final flurry and spike down of GTFO action.

Most people (myself included) assumed we would bounce this week, but I had a feeling yesterday with the gold action (corrective waves) that everything was in a bull trap.

Good Luck!
Mar 25
Comment: SPX and SPY made higher high, NQ hasn't and SP500 futures hasn't. Hard to tell what's happening exactly. My stop is close. We may follow through and break out for real or this is a massive bull trap. CNBC talking heads are very confident and relaxed - someone even saying we may have bottomed for real..... so there's your inverse indicator. Good luck
Mar 25
Comment: ES is following this trendline, probably spike through and reverse
Mar 25
Comment: Top has resistance as well. Will reenter short there

Mar 25
Comment: Target of 2515 hit, reentered short.
Mar 25
Comment: Perhaps one more higher high to 2525, Shouldn't get to 2540 if this is correct
Mar 25
Comment: I think that's the sell. Very convincing bull trap if it turns out how I think it will. Good Luck all
Mar 25
Comment: If the lower trendline breaks and the retest of the line fails, that would be a safe short with a tight stop. Good Luck All
Mar 25
Comment:
Mar 25
Comment: Looks like they want to close higher, I'll keep the shorts on personally. This trendline should shape the price into close
Mar 25
Comment: Channel high into close, went long and then will take shorts close to the top
Mar 25
Comment: Entered short, got fooled by the wrong channel count - oh well. Usually when I'm short it keeps riding the channel till I'm exasperated :).

Still looks good for a nice short swing trade - tomorrow is unemployment numbers, noone wants to be long for that I'm sure. Good luck all
Mar 26
Comment:
Could be this - any higher would be invalidated.
Mar 26
Comment: Possibly target hit (trendline backtest). Watching closely for confirmation
Mar 26
Comment:
Mar 26
Comment:

Comments

thoughts with the early buying this morning?
+1 Reply
@WDERUVE, I think it's this (futures)
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the_sunship the_sunship
@the_sunship, I would just sit on hands right now
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WDERUVE the_sunship
@the_sunship, agreed. Sitting on a very cheap put option for next week right now, just need the markets to cooperate. Money i can lose without problems which is a lot of peoples mistakes generally.
+1 Reply
@WDERUVE, Trendline for yesterday may play as the top- squeeze out shorts and bull trap longs. Would be a good strategy I think
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updated idea -
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It just hit 254 but bounced off. I hope this really is a false breakout.
Reply
the_sunship allanbrawer
@allanbrawer, I still think so, but my stops are above this last high
Reply
the_sunship allanbrawer
@allanbrawer, This trendline will probably be spiked through
Reply
allanbrawer the_sunship
@the_sunship, Thanks, appreciate the info. Gives me some hope!
Reply
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