MoneyPatterns

SPY - Minsky Moment coming?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
I AM NOT ENTERED IN THIS BEARISH POSITION...YET.
I will update with possible entries this morning after reviewing chart ideas.
Entry updates will be made at once on all charts when applicable.

"A Minsky Moment is a sudden collapse of asset prices after a long period of growth, sparked by debt or currency pressures." Named after economist Hyman Minsky.
This theory was co-written with a Nobel Prize winning economist. So basically 2 college professors - 1 of which is Nobel quality.
https://www.google.com/search?q=minsky%2...

The current market conditions represent a Minsky Moment by definition.
Current Fed Repo's still continuing to 1/14/2020 - https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domes...

Chart Details
Reversion to the mean 10WeekMA - SPY would be $310 or below.
Lots of gaps to fill down to $295. Very good profit potential for options entry.
Price has potential to correct down to blue line - long term support.
Watching RSI trend breakdown as one key indicator for entry.\
Bearish EMA cross below $320 Daily candle close should get us over the hump - going down. Will update later to confirm.

Entry Options
We have large liquidity and high downside risk.
Since things are uncertain, I see two options.
1 - No risk. No reward. Wait until Jan 1 to see if things go down, or continue up.
2 - Enter small size call credit spread for bearish SPY or anything else bearish like AAPL possibly by next Tuesday. Market is closed on Wed. 1/1/2020. By 1/2 either we get right/lucky or get screwed out of max $200ish. I will need to find exact specifics of entry after reviewing charts.

About Me
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing.
I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts.
I am transitioning to my new website http://www.moneypatterns.com and will be updating my username here. Same guy - new name. :)
Website will be ready for launch mid-January 2020. Thank you for your patience while I try to juggle everything and maintain the same standards.
Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD , GBTC .
Comment: Possible Options Entry:
Enter next Monday/Tuesday
Jan 17 expiry. Call Credit Spread. 321/324. $196 Credit. $103.68 max loss.
This entry implies that if SPY is below $324 and $321 by 1/17/2020, max credit $196 is kept.
Only thing - this entry each leg odds are 36% and 50%. LOW.
May change next week or this is just riskier trade.
Note - the 321/324 spread has greater payout than 321/326 ($5 spread).
97,000 open options contracts for the 321/324. Someone knows something.

Let me know if anyone has questions.

Comments

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