Using Volume analysis we can see clearly that the bulges around 183.50 and 184 will probably serve as a magnet before any further correction (for example on the Daily chart where I published a probably down-move soon).
First, the market will probably retrace, almost certainly to the 183.50 level.
If it doesn't, then this is a strong correction, but once it's over it will come back to fill that gap (most likely) even if a new secular bear emerges and no new highs are made.
So: either the market will go back to around 183.50 or higher and if it doesn't exceed 185 will probably go down much lower to Daily Chart correction levels over next 1-3 weeks (170-165) OR: market keeps going down to 170-65 level and then comes back to round 183.50 level.
Trading idea: wait for a clear buy signal on either 30 min or 5 min timeframe and then enter long. Once enough profits in the bag, can place breakeven stop in case downtrend resumes. If signal fails, then wait for another buy signal or immediately reverse (failure of good buy setup is bearish obviously), but that's a different approach to this commentary which is calling for a pullback.
Another longer-term approach is to start buying and be prepared to keep buying all the way down to longer term support. That takes time and deeper pockets, but generally: if a market goes strongly in one direction without significant correction and you are caught going the wrong way AND have deep pockets - or are not over-leveraged relative to your account size which is saying the same thing - then you can keep averaging in at more favourable price so that when correction happens, you will quickly make profit on entire position.
Comments
AshHowes
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Well, this is an old post (and today the 30 day free volume indies trial is over and since am not putting $$ on the line these days will not subscribe though I think it's reasonable value - $5.00 a month would be better!): but the market is now - finally after the correction mentioned as possible - coming back to that level. What happens now is significant: if it stalls up here and can't punch up much higher, and/or if it gets up to the old highs but can't make significant new leg up (basis daily chart), then probably this year the story will be a correction back down to 2011 levels which looks quite reasonable if viewed on a longer term weekly chart. But this is a 30-minute post so to review:
the inability of the market to rally to 183 level, evidenced by making lower lows after this post, indicated the sellers were in charge. At some point a bottom was formed by several retests at which point this originally pointed-out 183 level is the natural target of that rally, which is what we have seen and what I typed out in trading ideas - which included what to do if it kept going down - the first post a couple of weeks ago
AshHowes
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15:19 I forgot this was Friday! Mkt continued down after comment published without issuing any sort of buy signal. It's not a deep or convincing move today, but again: today is Friday. Looks like we'll have a strong down week on the weekly chart. That said, don't be surprised if Monday it rallies to the level identified above (or first part of week, Mon-Wed, and then, once that gap filled and some of the trapped longs have gotten out after bidding the market up, look for lower weekly low later.
This is all wild speculation of course, but based around this value area and gap which, to my mind, is begging for a pullback before anything else on the downside can really develop.
And to repeat: if it does just crash down next week without that pullback, then at some point on next longer-term swing up, it will try for it and that zone will be good area to take profits from lower-down longs and load up on shorts. IF it doesn't first pullback and goes straight down. If it DOES pullback, then a deeper correction is more reasonable because that gap no longer acting as magnet.
justatrader
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Agree.. a retracement is definitely due.. 1800 a nice level for an interim floor to be formed. If it does hold, a retracement is quite on the cards, 1820 is what i'm looking at.
the inability of the market to rally to 183 level, evidenced by making lower lows after this post, indicated the sellers were in charge. At some point a bottom was formed by several retests at which point this originally pointed-out 183 level is the natural target of that rally, which is what we have seen and what I typed out in trading ideas - which included what to do if it kept going down - the first post a couple of weeks ago