THIS IS NOT READY. I will update once there is an entry.
Keep in mind - Markets close at 1pm today. EARLY CLOSE
A Santa Claus rally is a calendar effect that involves a rise in stock prices during the last 5 trading days in December and the first 2 trading days in the following January. google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=santa+claus+rally+definition Based on Santa Claus rally, we have a 76% chance of the definition occurring above.
Jan. 3rd is the first Friday of 2020 (options contracts and therefore volume occurs highly around Friday's, especially first/last Friday's). So I will be a watcher/seller of bearish call credit spreads above SPY price watching all next week, for entry on way down once it starts to tip over.
This is one where we need to watch play by play. It could rally further in January (with January effect). It is also very overbought and ready for correction. We will not attempt to get in front of the trade. We will wait for confirmation to avoid losses.
My Opinion For those who think "Everything is great. What are you talking about jbird??? RSI at 80 for weeks is normal". Please see - Visualizing the National Debt - howmuch.net/articles/national-debt-of-the-united-states And - The Purchasing Power of the USD over last 100years howmuch.net/articles/rise-and-fall-dollar Then answer - How are things "the best ever" when the value of the US Dollar is at the lowest point in history, headed to 33% further devaluation over next 20 years, with National Debt exceeding 22Trillion (highest ever)? What is "the best" about this?
Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long BTCUSD, GBTC. Short-term NFLX
Thank you, very helpful.
I totally agree with " not attempt to get in front of the trade. We will wait for confirmation to avoid losses" This is a game of patience and precision. Hope I can learn from mistakes and concur my psychology effect.
DaddySawbucks
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Typically tax-related orderly selling occurs in first ten days of Jan, creating a BTFD opportunity later in month.
Real panic selliing might occur in Feb, as we saw in '18; would be really amazing if prices remain stratospheric much longer than that IMO.
March is typically weak for equities and creates another BTFD for April/May, unless a Bear Campaign begins in earnest...
"It's hard to make predictions, especially when it's about the future!"
I totally agree with " not attempt to get in front of the trade. We will wait for confirmation to avoid losses" This is a game of patience and precision. Hope I can learn from mistakes and concur my psychology effect.