Looks more and more like 2008 and 2011. This Thursday and Friday are critical as I will learn if TLT is able to break out, and thus either validate or invalidate (at least defer it) this case.
A further study reveals that during 2008 and 2011 TLT spikes, 10 year rate drops about 44%. If true this time, it should drop to 1.44%, coincident with 2012 all time low. It will be fun to watch if this can materialize.