The SPY is once again hitting a new all-time high today, with the market looking optimistic. As long as it continues to show the pattern of higher highs/higher lows, bullish sentiment will prevail. Last month, I made several warnings that we shouldn't try to guess the top, and that the trend is upwards. The only thing that could reverse the situation would be a clear reversal signal. The link to my last public study on SPY is below this analysis, as usual.
For now, I still don't see any technical evidence suggesting a correction or a pullback, but we should pay attention to some key points, especially its medium-term support levels, because if the SPY loses them, the bullish momentum could become weaker.
Despite leaving a gap below the price, today's candle is small, revealing a contained intraday movement. If this gap closes this week, it could be classified as an Exhaustion Gap, a technical piece of evidence that the trend is losing momentum.
However, the most important key point for the SPY is the yellow area in the chart above. This point is the area of the previous all-time high at $479.98, and a secondary top at $477.55. In addition, we see the 21 EMA rising, and it will probably enter this area soon, forming a triple support level.
A pullback to this triple support level is acceptable, and it's not a technical reason to believe in an immediate reversal; after all, pullbacks in an uptrend are buying opportunities most of the time. But if the SPY loses this point, the medium-term trend could reverse, in which case the next targets will be on the weekly chart.
We can see that just below the yellow area, we have support around $466, a previous bottom, and a point near the 50-MA (red line), which is set up for the daily chart, even though we see the weekly chart. This makes the area around $466 the next area of support should SPY begin a sharper correction.
Since SPY has materialized a Golden Cross pattern (when the 50-MA breaks through the 200-MA, the black line, upwards), we can say that the official trend is upwards, but it is important that SPY keeps prices above these support levels in order to maintain the long-term uptrend.
For now, we have to be aware that the trend is upwards, and we don't see the SPY losing any support levels yet, so there are no signs of a correction, let alone a reversal in sight. We'll proceed very cautiously, paying attention to its key points. In the absence of a clear bearish reversal structure, the SPY should continue to rise, until it reaches $500, which, although not a technical resistance, is more of a psychological resistance, as we know that the market has a soft spot for round numbers.
Of course, I’ll keep you updated on this, so consider supporting this idea if you liked the content, and follow me to keep in touch. What's more, keep in mind that the idea described above reflects my humble opinion. It is not investment advice, use it for educational purposes and to improve your own thesis about the market.
i liked when you correlated the values with SP500, now its hard to correlate the numbers when its 488 SPY vs 4887.50 sp500 only because when it takes off with trading your off a bunch of pips that could make or brake the trader trying to compare market(s)... fyi I've been following your journey for about 2yrs so i know you know what your talking about. just go back to running both charts like you use to so that we can follow along. thanks and your great with no complaints. "we stronger united"
xchi732
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M0_BTC
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"For now, I still don't see any technical evidence suggesting a correction or a pullback", I got one for you, but I can assure the pullback shouldn't be too harsh.
Nathan_Black
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@M0_BTC, Interesting, thanks for sharing! But in future avoid using the word "assure", as it is frowned upon in the finance industry, and is even unethical according to CFA institute standards.