We've been having many, many bullish days for the last several weeks. Clearly, the buyer is slowly becoming exhausted. I see both the Elliott Wave Theory and Rising Wedge playing out. Based on these two trends, I see a possible target of SPY 240-260 range in the next couple of weeks.
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Upon reviewing some good comments and feedback, I'd like to add that once S&P breaks above 2,880 (SPY 288) it is likely that this count is invalidated and count 5 has just begun with a target in the range of 2,950 - 3,100 (295-310). My view is short-biased and I'm waiting for a break of 2,720 (SPY 272) for confirmation that the ABC correction is playing out.
@Simphiwe-Mabaso, This count is pending confirmation of a break of ~2,720 to the downside. If we break ~2,880 to the upside, then it is possible count 5 is just beginning and we can see a target of 2,950 - 3,100. I cross-reference several indicators, and as seen in the chart, I've overlayed both the rising wedge and elliott wave. Thanks for your comment.
fortunawatches
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I agree 100 % 240
travishuckaba
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Your 3, 5, and B form a pretty convincing head and shoulders pattern that would have a resolution target around 250.
MJC77
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I've got wave 3 ending at your wave 5 and it's easier to see on the daily. Imo we've still got more upside and it could become an extended wave 5, so I'm long. At the back of my mind, is lockdown restrictions being relaxed in early May in most countries - that could be all that's needed to get this illogical rally extended.
JohnLloyd
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What do you think about Amazon's weight in SPX and how it could singlehandedly effect the whole index? Check out SPX -AMZN. If Amazon breaks north out of its wedge, it could pull the whole SPX north with it...?
qnp
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@JohnLloyd, Hey JL, Thanks for your message. I notice someone posted this chart and found it to be interesting. Not sure if the SPX-AMZN is appropriately subtracting the market cap off the SPX index weight but I found that analysis to be very telling. IMO - if AMZN is increasing to new highs while the SPX is significantly lower than earlier this year then overall we know that overall money is exiting equities and going into cash positions (higher USD value). The fact that AMZN is higher could be that existing money shifting into it temporarily, as with other growth and tech stocks since they've made almost a full V recovery. I was reading how common growth stocks in the dot com bubble experienced declines up to 95% while experiencing explosive growths near the end of the bubble. In my biased view, I think the high volatility of these growth and tech stocks alerts a dangerous road ahead. Check out youtube.com/watch?v=YqwETRfEEJw&feature=youtu.be
josephtse
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BUY STRADDLES! I can see the case down to 2650 but no more, and an equal if not more chance to 2950-3000 range.
Filster77
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Depends if you think we have begun the ABC correction or whether we are just beginning the 5th wave