SPY monthly update

746 4 11
Monthly candle stick price action continues to be bullish . At the moment price is too far away from the 10MA so we could see a minor correction near term. As far as a long term correction or major top is concerned, I don't see one.On this chart you can see that there's was plenty warning of a top in the late '90s , 2007 and a smaller divergence top in 2010. In 2011 we had a minor Trix divergence and candle stick reversal pattern. When there's no large divergences on monthly charts, more often then not corrections are short lived especially with indexes. Sell in May and go away doesn't always work . Seasonality implies that price will fall or rise because the calendar says so. I rather follow a chart rather then a calendar, that's my personal opinion.
if SPY             closes above current CLONE by the end of May, the next target is top of next CLONE.
Nice work nmike! Yes I agree and does correspond well with my bullish count for SP. We could very well see a 5th wave up in the major 3rd wave before we have a the major wave 4 correction. That's the tricky part of the 4th wave. Unpredictable and never really trustworthy... I guess thats why Elliottician love the 3rd of the 3rd wave.... simple and clear... one way direction.
>>>> As expected (read original post) we had a minor correction but no major price action damage and price held above May's candle low.Best guess is that we move higher from here, most likely to test previous high.
.... we finished the month of May with a new high, the only minor issue I have is that price is too far away from the averages and the May candle, although green, has a rather long upper tail,in the daily frame this translates in a short term correction so far. In summary the monthly long term trend is still intact but judging by the daily price action it's likely that we could have a correction down to the 10ma on monthly frame near term.On daily frame we have broken a minor pivot and we could see SPY correct to the .236 Fib level near term.
a correction down to the 10ma (around 152) on monthly frame means a correction down to around 200 ma (around 150) on daily frame which is about 11% below its all time high (169) and corresponds to the Fib 0.5 level in your chart above. Today's drop hits your first target.
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