StoneCo (4H) - short term Bullcase // could it fill the GAP ?
Hello traders (and some investors ?),
As you could notice, most of high-growth and tech stocks are in bear market for last several months.
While huge part of them formed abc corrective waves down. StoneCo formed impulsive wave (of 5 subwaves) DOWN =that´s not good sign because impulsive waves are never alone.
So my thesis how to play this stock is this.:
- You can see there is a GAP around 27-29usd which is around 0.238 retracement. (possible 140% gains).
Fundamentals:
-- there is huge risk, as it is Emerging market in Brazil.
- A lot of competitors(like NU bank) with much bigger backing (Berkshoire invested in both, also Softbank, ...)
++ StoneCo grow very fast in terms of AMU and revenue.
+/- management hired some advisors which could help to restruturalize business (and also increase expenses :( )...
+/- Stone aquired some businesses which was very good step, but I really dont understand why they bought stake in Banco inter (AT THE TOP !!) = seriously guys, they should consider hiring at least average trader / Technical analyst for this kind of aquisitions / investments...
+/- stock price correlates highly with other Groth/tech stocks (check my Fintech/ecommerce analysis ... seems like Stoneco correlates more with Chines market than SaP).
So fundamentally its 50/50 and depending on many variables = long term it could be nice investment if you are willing going to the moon or to zero....
Right now I´m not willing take so big risk to hold it forever, so my target is around 28 usd. if we form wave C of correction UP, I will sell everything and watch from side.
Take care, strade safe and enjoy the ride. ;)
As you could notice, most of high-growth and tech stocks are in bear market for last several months.
While huge part of them formed abc corrective waves down. StoneCo formed impulsive wave (of 5 subwaves) DOWN =that´s not good sign because impulsive waves are never alone.
So my thesis how to play this stock is this.:
- You can see there is a GAP around 27-29usd which is around 0.238 retracement. (possible 140% gains).
Fundamentals:
-- there is huge risk, as it is Emerging market in Brazil.
- A lot of competitors(like NU bank) with much bigger backing (Berkshoire invested in both, also Softbank, ...)
++ StoneCo grow very fast in terms of AMU and revenue.
+/- management hired some advisors which could help to restruturalize business (and also increase expenses :( )...
+/- Stone aquired some businesses which was very good step, but I really dont understand why they bought stake in Banco inter (AT THE TOP !!) = seriously guys, they should consider hiring at least average trader / Technical analyst for this kind of aquisitions / investments...
+/- stock price correlates highly with other Groth/tech stocks (check my Fintech/ecommerce analysis ... seems like Stoneco correlates more with Chines market than SaP).
So fundamentally its 50/50 and depending on many variables = long term it could be nice investment if you are willing going to the moon or to zero....
Right now I´m not willing take so big risk to hold it forever, so my target is around 28 usd. if we form wave C of correction UP, I will sell everything and watch from side.
Take care, strade safe and enjoy the ride. ;)
Comment:
Banco INter could also see some retracement, in that case it could apply similarly for entire Banking / fintech sector of Latin america (and China / Asia ? )
