STORJBTC 12H Bittrex – falling wedge and trendline
STORJ broke smaller falling wedge (red) yesterday with nice volume push against BTC. Now attempting the downtrend line of a broader falling wedge starting from 0.00023 level. I expect 2 scenarios for long:
1. The downtrend line of the broad falling wedge will not break now but there will be a retrace to the trend-line (blue line) first and then break-out of the falling wedge – in that scenario I would buy in the breakout (with BTC is being very close now to the angle of an ascending triangle and so potentially a decision will be coming shortly I would expect this scenario more likely than #2 below).
2. The downtrend line of the broad falling wedge will be broken very shortly without having a retrace to blue trend-line. In that case I would wait for a pull-back after break-out to the new support line and/or to the blue trend-line and looking for reversal.
I would set TP targets to 0.382, 0.618 and 1 fib levels of previous upswing – respectively 0.000121, 0.000161, 0.000231 levels. SL can be defined either by breaking the blue trend-line or wait until reaching levels under 0.0008 (depending the risk I might be willing to take) that would negate the possibility of having a double-bottom scenario and would point to a further downtrend possibly.
Please note – these are my own views on my potential trade setup. Please do your own research and trade carefully!
1. The downtrend line of the broad falling wedge will not break now but there will be a retrace to the trend-line (blue line) first and then break-out of the falling wedge – in that scenario I would buy in the breakout (with BTC is being very close now to the angle of an ascending triangle and so potentially a decision will be coming shortly I would expect this scenario more likely than #2 below).
2. The downtrend line of the broad falling wedge will be broken very shortly without having a retrace to blue trend-line. In that case I would wait for a pull-back after break-out to the new support line and/or to the blue trend-line and looking for reversal.
I would set TP targets to 0.382, 0.618 and 1 fib levels of previous upswing – respectively 0.000121, 0.000161, 0.000231 levels. SL can be defined either by breaking the blue trend-line or wait until reaching levels under 0.0008 (depending the risk I might be willing to take) that would negate the possibility of having a double-bottom scenario and would point to a further downtrend possibly.
Please note – these are my own views on my potential trade setup. Please do your own research and trade carefully!
Comment:
Seems like scenario 2 is playing - we have a break-out now from the wedge BUT seemingly BTC is ready to breakout upwards as well - or at least we are very close to a decision point in the BTCUSD pair. I am expecting a pull-back in the STORJBTC pair and then potentially ready to go. In case STORJ now makes a home run to 0.000121 levels w/o pull-back I stay flat and will assess price action at the resistance level.
Comment:
BTCUSD simple status and chart below - decision has to be made shortly. I am staying flat until this unfolds.
Trade active:
I have set 0.25 BTC (half of my planned deposit) buy at 0.000099 level on Poloniex - not yet completely filled. The reasons are the higher low on the 6 hour chart, RSI above 60, being in the cloud above conversion and base line and the lower line of the cloud. Support held after wedge breakout at 0.000094 levels.
With monitoring closely I will determine my SL later. I am bullish to go now at least to around 0.00012 level/resistance.
With monitoring closely I will determine my SL later. I am bullish to go now at least to around 0.00012 level/resistance.
Comment:
My order at 0.000099 for 0.25 BTC was filled. The volume is low though and there may be a short term falling wedge to watch out for. In case there is a pullback I may add the other half of the deposit at lower levels and upon reversal signal. In case the blue trend-line is broken I will be potentially off but it is not that close at the moment.
Comment:
Reached 0.00012 which is fib 0.382 of the previous major upswing and was approx. first target. Let's see whether it will be able to push through. My next and I would say ultimate target with this particular trade would be the 0.618 fib at 0.000155 - 0.00016 levels. But let's see. I was not adding finally more - I am in with 0.25 BTC.
Comment:
The potential uptrend line is being compromised. We may hit a double-bottom and may see a reversal or even going south further - let's see. I am still in with my position trade of 0.25 BTC at 0.000099.
Comment:
Trendline holds quite nicely.
Comment:
So far blue trend line holds nicely.
Comment:
Price exploded nicely - it hit resistance (0.382 fib of previous down swing). Waiting for further price action around this level - my ultimate target is still the 0.000155 level which is 0.618 fib of previous down swing.
Comment:
Apologies for the confusing comment above. I realize that the post was made for Bittrex where actually the price hit the target yesterday. But I was making the actual trade on Poloniex where price hit only 0.000128. So my trade still goes on. On Bittrex the price made a huge spike.
Comment:
I have now added 0.5 BTC at 0.000117. Target is 0.618 extension of previous large bullish swing that is approx. at 0.000160 level.