Stratis is falling to two possible levels. The first is the support level at 0.00217, which coincides with the 61.8% fib retracement when drawn from point C to point 5 (the second Elliot wave cycle). The second is 0.00184, the 61.8% fib retracement from the start of the first Elliot wave cycle where the massive upswing first began.
Originally I felt confident that Stratis would not fall below the support at 0.00217 however as buyers failed to appear during the last few weeks I now feel that we will see a fall to the 0.00184 level. This is because the outlook for altcoins is bearish during July as we can expect a lot of people to take money from altcoins that have a $ price correlated with BTC due to bip148 on August 1st. Additionally, we recently has a minor break below the 50 day EMA and I think we will see the price fall close to the 100 day EMA which should occur very close to the 0.00184 level.
The results of some recent surveys on people's plans to keep their money safe during bip148 suggest that majority of people are either looking to take their money away from crypto to fiat, invest in litecoin or HODL BTC but very few said they would be looking to other altcoins.
Therefore overall I believe we will see first another fall to 0.00217, followed by a minor rebound then another fall down to 0.00184 in mid to late July. After 1st August I think we will return to the bull trend with the start of a new Elliot Wave cycle and can expect some large gains from there as the long term outlook for Stratis is very strong.
Comments
Enhancement321
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It appears you are correct.
catalystcw
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I agree with your call. I personally have liquidated my alt-coin positions for the very reasons you suggest in your analysis. I can't believe I'm the only person doing this.
If there is agreement that BTC has reversed and in a downtrend, then all/most alt-coins will fall too. Obviously the big debate is if BTC is now in a bear trend or not...
willp111
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@catalystcw, I think in the short term leading up to bip148 bitcoin will see a fall as there's going to be both a lack of demand and increase in supply due to the uncertainty. After that I think we can expect some gains for BTC as its' position as the main trading pair for altcoins with the huge new interest in blockchain tech props up demand and they will have just improved the technology giving faster and cheaper transactions.
When all the planned decentralized exchanges offering custom tokens start operating, BTCs function as the main trading pair will start to disappear. Widespread use of BTC as a currency for every day purchase of good and services will never happen in my opinion, there's already better blockchain tech for that purpose and BTCs development is too slow so when/if we do start seeing widespread adoption of cryptos for every day spending it won't be BTC.
In the short-term I expect it to fall leading up to 1st August, followed by a rise after that.
In the medium-term I expect it to be relatively stable vs the $, the demand for BTC propped up by the new demand crytocurrencies in general may be offset by the supply from BTC whales who start to realise that they can find better returns elsewhere.
In the long-term I expect it to fade away completely when people don't need it as a trading pair for altcoins and the promises of widespread adoption fail to materialise.
Of course I could be completely wrong, like the many before me who have predicted BTCs demise.
bigs2102408
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Good chart and all but I think your wrong on this call
willp111
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@bigs2102408, fair enough, whats your reasoning to be more bullish?