State Street; Captains of Crash Foresight and Self-Plundering
Disclaimer
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's clever play to enrich itself in the event of an economic collapse.
This analysis has no information pertaining to the company State Street, nor it's business dealings or financials. This is a pure analysis of the facts as presented in dual press releases, aligning itself with historical information in the event of financial turbulence, along with a clever little explanation of State Street's play.
The articles in question:
www.yahoo.com/now/st...third-203500943.html
newsroom.statestreet...ffering/default.aspx
Thesis
State Street is a large investment bank centered in Boston, MA. Their specifics are unimportant, they are respectable, they have some cute and clever holdings, but all in all, they are a large investment firm that does not specialize in innovation, they are the same flavour of bank as every other, just with a piss poor use of words ending in r. Wholly uninteresting, this cute play caught this analyst's eye, and it had to be shared. The bulk of this thesis rests on the idea of an eminent crash where there will be an obscene amount of volatility in the network, end resulting in massive appreciation in equities focused along ESG guidelines and "memestocks", especially those that fall between like Tesla $TSLA (although there is little to suggest $TSLA flourishes short term, their long term allure cannot be denied). This author has written extensively on maligned and corrupt stock market mechanics, as well as those that are leading to this crash, but there has been substantial pieces of questionable to unquestioning proof that a financial collapse is coming to some greater scale similar to 2008. China's Evergrande is only the tip of the iceberg, where America's 2008 seems to look almost pedantic; perhaps the scale in logarithmic economic growth derived in China matches the magnitude of the fall to come. End resultant unimportant to State Street's play, if any global financial panic or collapse happens, State Street will be shuttered into the ground. State Street knows this, because they are planning on it. Having aliquoted $3 billion in liquid assets for a share buyback across the next 6 quarters in any order they choose, State Street has just sold a little over $2 billion in shares for administrative/business purposes. By taking a temporary loan in shares now, waiting for their own stock to crash to buyback, State Street has gamified it's own fall.
State Street has sold 21.7 million shares at a current price of $87.6, an 18% increase from $STT's price on July 15th, when they announced they would buyback $3 billion in shares. By natural design, the stock will fall after share dilution all on it's own, but given an all but certain tumultuous period ahead for the global markets (rapidly increasing inflation, social unrest, pandemic response, mass eviction crisis, supply line shortage, etc.), State Street could fall from it's current high of $88.3 per share to the low teens if matching 2008's pattern. If State Street had bought back shares on July 15th, they would be able to buyback 36.6 million shares at ~82/share. Today, just 34 million shares.
At $60/share -->50 million shares
$50/share -->60 million shares
$40/share -->75 million shares
$30/share -->100 million shares
$20/share -->150 million shares
$10/share -->300 million shares
With 344 million shares outstanding, some clever options play and a really tough go on day, State Street could buy itself back completely for $3 billion. With institutional ownership at 91%, it is extremely unlikely they could have bought many shares at all with $3 billion before squeezing itself, which is perhaps some objective of their initial announcement. With a 17% increase in share price, but little volume, it almost wasn't worth the early warning that a crash was coming. By utilizing looming global economic events, State Street stands to reap an outstanding reward with it's own stock, all while borrowing the money to do it right before the crash itself. Perhaps the SEC or investors may not ask why even borrow $2 billion, let alone when $3 billion was just set aside from a record quarter with record profits, but at some point, at some moral juncture, those that betray their investors so willingly, so knowingly, must at some point come to justice. In selling 21.7 million shares, State Street has created a market of shares to buyback, all while selling shares they undoubtedly know will become next to worthless in a matter of days to weeks to months. Furthermore, should any of those investors manage to hold on to their shares, ride out the wave to come from under the crash back onto the pump of $STT from the foreshadowing share buyback, it won't much matter as the shares are likely awarded to directors as a bonus for a job well done, and a scheme well clevered.
In no way would State Street's performance or abilities deter from the plan; any substantial unwinding of leverage leading to a massive flash crash, or even worse, a sustained economic downtrend on the global equities markets, will lead to a massive sell-off of bank stocks, leading to a massive decrease in $STT. Pre-COVID, from the moment the Bank of International Settlements announced a possible economic crash was coming, $STT was plummeting. Their own performance aside, nothing from their profits would suggest such an event other than a downturn in the stock market and a lack of investor interest and confidence in the banking sector. Nothing has changed for State Street since then, having missed massive Federal Reserve boons, failed to make massive in-roads against the more impressive asset managers, and choosing to go a more unique path for now.
If the bet is State Street going up or going down in the near term, this analyst will bet with State Street, by betting against State Street. State Street has effectively short-sold itself, by selling shares that it plans to buyback at a lower price, State Street has become the bear.
Disclaimer
This author does not have any financial investment in $STT or it's price. This author does not believe in short selling from a financial and logical reasoning; money against is money not put for. This is meant as light reading on a small historical perspective and a cute little play State Street is making. Good luck, always do your own research, and &$%# Cancer and shorts!
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. There is absolutely no financial advice here because the only financial advice I can give is to research, research, and research. The purpose of this analysis is to serve as an example of an investigation into a company's clever play to enrich itself in the event of an economic collapse.
This analysis has no information pertaining to the company State Street, nor it's business dealings or financials. This is a pure analysis of the facts as presented in dual press releases, aligning itself with historical information in the event of financial turbulence, along with a clever little explanation of State Street's play.
The articles in question:
www.yahoo.com/now/st...third-203500943.html
newsroom.statestreet...ffering/default.aspx
Thesis
State Street is a large investment bank centered in Boston, MA. Their specifics are unimportant, they are respectable, they have some cute and clever holdings, but all in all, they are a large investment firm that does not specialize in innovation, they are the same flavour of bank as every other, just with a piss poor use of words ending in r. Wholly uninteresting, this cute play caught this analyst's eye, and it had to be shared. The bulk of this thesis rests on the idea of an eminent crash where there will be an obscene amount of volatility in the network, end resulting in massive appreciation in equities focused along ESG guidelines and "memestocks", especially those that fall between like Tesla $TSLA (although there is little to suggest $TSLA flourishes short term, their long term allure cannot be denied). This author has written extensively on maligned and corrupt stock market mechanics, as well as those that are leading to this crash, but there has been substantial pieces of questionable to unquestioning proof that a financial collapse is coming to some greater scale similar to 2008. China's Evergrande is only the tip of the iceberg, where America's 2008 seems to look almost pedantic; perhaps the scale in logarithmic economic growth derived in China matches the magnitude of the fall to come. End resultant unimportant to State Street's play, if any global financial panic or collapse happens, State Street will be shuttered into the ground. State Street knows this, because they are planning on it. Having aliquoted $3 billion in liquid assets for a share buyback across the next 6 quarters in any order they choose, State Street has just sold a little over $2 billion in shares for administrative/business purposes. By taking a temporary loan in shares now, waiting for their own stock to crash to buyback, State Street has gamified it's own fall.
State Street has sold 21.7 million shares at a current price of $87.6, an 18% increase from $STT's price on July 15th, when they announced they would buyback $3 billion in shares. By natural design, the stock will fall after share dilution all on it's own, but given an all but certain tumultuous period ahead for the global markets (rapidly increasing inflation, social unrest, pandemic response, mass eviction crisis, supply line shortage, etc.), State Street could fall from it's current high of $88.3 per share to the low teens if matching 2008's pattern. If State Street had bought back shares on July 15th, they would be able to buyback 36.6 million shares at ~82/share. Today, just 34 million shares.
At $60/share -->50 million shares
$50/share -->60 million shares
$40/share -->75 million shares
$30/share -->100 million shares
$20/share -->150 million shares
$10/share -->300 million shares
With 344 million shares outstanding, some clever options play and a really tough go on day, State Street could buy itself back completely for $3 billion. With institutional ownership at 91%, it is extremely unlikely they could have bought many shares at all with $3 billion before squeezing itself, which is perhaps some objective of their initial announcement. With a 17% increase in share price, but little volume, it almost wasn't worth the early warning that a crash was coming. By utilizing looming global economic events, State Street stands to reap an outstanding reward with it's own stock, all while borrowing the money to do it right before the crash itself. Perhaps the SEC or investors may not ask why even borrow $2 billion, let alone when $3 billion was just set aside from a record quarter with record profits, but at some point, at some moral juncture, those that betray their investors so willingly, so knowingly, must at some point come to justice. In selling 21.7 million shares, State Street has created a market of shares to buyback, all while selling shares they undoubtedly know will become next to worthless in a matter of days to weeks to months. Furthermore, should any of those investors manage to hold on to their shares, ride out the wave to come from under the crash back onto the pump of $STT from the foreshadowing share buyback, it won't much matter as the shares are likely awarded to directors as a bonus for a job well done, and a scheme well clevered.
In no way would State Street's performance or abilities deter from the plan; any substantial unwinding of leverage leading to a massive flash crash, or even worse, a sustained economic downtrend on the global equities markets, will lead to a massive sell-off of bank stocks, leading to a massive decrease in $STT. Pre-COVID, from the moment the Bank of International Settlements announced a possible economic crash was coming, $STT was plummeting. Their own performance aside, nothing from their profits would suggest such an event other than a downturn in the stock market and a lack of investor interest and confidence in the banking sector. Nothing has changed for State Street since then, having missed massive Federal Reserve boons, failed to make massive in-roads against the more impressive asset managers, and choosing to go a more unique path for now.
If the bet is State Street going up or going down in the near term, this analyst will bet with State Street, by betting against State Street. State Street has effectively short-sold itself, by selling shares that it plans to buyback at a lower price, State Street has become the bear.
Disclaimer
This author does not have any financial investment in $STT or it's price. This author does not believe in short selling from a financial and logical reasoning; money against is money not put for. This is meant as light reading on a small historical perspective and a cute little play State Street is making. Good luck, always do your own research, and &$%# Cancer and shorts!