The previous short I was looking for on a break below the ascending triangle trendline never triggered. The price structure is still a triangle and I put probabilities on what was originally my alternate count.
So A-TriangleB-C up into 41.50 - 41.80. 5 waves into wave C with divergence into the wave (v) of C. Arithmetic symmetry is at 41.80 for throw-over, trendline is near 41.50. Triggering short on a strong bear move back below 41.23 ascending Grey trendline. Stops are even handle behind wherever the C wave high comes in. Maybe 41.91 And then anticipated tradeable Bear move into 38.70.
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Gap down this morning and triggered short at a crummy price, quite a bit lower than I would've like to have been filled. Oh well.
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Stop to Break even yesterday. Based on the 4hour oscillator pattern and smaller fractal corrections in the decline, I am revising my target lower into Fib support cluster at 37.68. There's also a lower support cluster at 36.84. Depending on the hourly count down, I will take half off at 37.68 and trail into 2nd target.
Trade closed: target reached
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Target hit for me on the spike down and I'm flat. But given the very symmetric previous corrections, and clear Corrective character of the current hourly price action over the past 3 trading days, I do believe T is headed lower, perhaps down into 36.15 with a caution Fib cluster support at 36.84.
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cbud
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Looking at the hourly chart again, I see a high probability of a Running Triangle in the first correction down from the initiation of the trade.
Triangles don't appear in a wave 2 position, so probabilities tip to this being a 3 wave move to the downside that will not balance out to an impulse 5 wave move.
This is evidence I wasn't seeing in the past 2 days. I think greed blinding me to assume much lower lows below 36.
With the symmetry from the previous large decline, which is what I was playing for in the first place, it tips probabilities into having 5 waves showing into a C wave with divergence forming in the 5 of C wave.
I'm going to revert to the original target at the lower Red channel descending line.
In this case, it's gotten there faster than I anticipated so 38.62 and not into the 37 level.
I wish Tview would allow me to post a follow up hourly chart so I could show what I see.
mater
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I believe its a small correction and a good buying opportunity. :)
cbud
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I'm also a longer term buyer in another account and will add. But for this move I'm looking lower just below 39.
Triangles don't appear in a wave 2 position, so probabilities tip to this being a 3 wave move to the downside that will not balance out to an impulse 5 wave move.
This is evidence I wasn't seeing in the past 2 days. I think greed blinding me to assume much lower lows below 36.
With the symmetry from the previous large decline, which is what I was playing for in the first place, it tips probabilities into having 5 waves showing into a C wave with divergence forming in the 5 of C wave.
I'm going to revert to the original target at the lower Red channel descending line.
In this case, it's gotten there faster than I anticipated so 38.62 and not into the 37 level.
I wish Tview would allow me to post a follow up hourly chart so I could show what I see.