vlad.adrian
Long

AT&T - Double bottom with divergence and engulfing

NYSE:T   AT&T INC
476 31 10
There is a saying that appears in a lot of books "Plan your trade and trade your plan". I never did this. I always keep a trade that is on profit until it looks like the trend changed, I never plan my exits. This is the first trade where I'm gonna make a plan and trade it, no matter what happens.

The US market opens in 10 minutes, and I'm gonna watch for the open. A strong gap down cancels the trade. With my risk management rules and my portofolio size, I can buy 100 shares of AT&T             . The stop loss will be under the current low. I'm going to close half of the position at take profit 1, and move the stop loss on break even (including the commision costs) on the remaining 50 shares. If we close over the last swing high, that is 33.50$, I will move my stop loss at the last swing low on the hourly chart. If we reach 35$, I'm going to close the entire position.

Technically, we have a class B bullish divergence (the third one) both on the MACD lines and the histogram. Bullish engulfing with strong volume . Also, the support line at 32$ is a very strong weekly support.
warmandfuzzy
2 years ago
great chart!
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timwest PRO
2 years ago
I wish the big phone companies weren't cutting their throats to keep their business right now. With T-Mobile paying big money to get subscribers to switch from AT&T and Verizon, and then AT&T cuts its monthly subscription rate by $100 or 40%, well, those aren't good times in general for the near term outlook for AT&T. I'd like to be short on every rally to resistance and not look for much on the upside for awhile as the short sellers will be there and the eager longs will be lining up to exit their shares on any lift in price (in my opinion). The telecom industry is under severe profit pressure and I want to concentrate on the short side of this group. I'm thinking that you can get to profit target 1 you have listed, then I'd get short and look for a bigger leg down. Just look at the volume on the last decline. It was high. Look at the volume in the last rally, it was light. And just a note: the "bullish engulfing" pattern needs a gap down opening and a close above the previous bar's opening price. That's not what happened there. Just sharing. Thanks for putting up the chart. It is definitely helpful for us all to look at what is going on and what patterns are happening out there. :-) Tim 11:58AM 2/28/2014
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vlad.adrian PRO timwest
2 years ago
Hello Tim, glad to see I caught your attention.
My fundamental knowledge is really bad, and usually I don't read newspapers or online sites, so I'm glad you brought some fundamental insight. I tried once to read a macroeconomic book and I just couldn't. I know I have to step up a bit.
About volume, well I have big problems here. In technical analysis books, well, they just say the basics, and I couldn't find a proper study or a book that concentrates on volume. If you know something please recommend, I really need it.
Regarding the price target, I'm not confident either that AT&T can get to my second take profit, that's why my plan is changing the stop loss to breakeven (including commisions) at the first take profit, for the remaining position. From what I've seen until now, Double Tops or Bottoms don't really brake the immediate support or resistance in order to reach their final target.
Lastly, about the bullish engulfing, yes I know it's not the proper pattern, but I bend the rules a bit if I spot in the past similar patterns. Please have a look at these dates 09/10/2013 ; 25/10/2013 ; 18/12/2013. There is no gap down, but look at the rallies that followed. They are very similar, almost engulfing patterns such as the current one. Unfortunately, there is a bearish engulfing formed today, with a gap up and a close below previous candle, so the trade might not work.
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fcha PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
I saw the news about AT & T before I bought, I saw it on Zack that AT & T invested in a few states $800 million, they said that AT & T posess one of the strongest balance sheet in the industry, they invested in Texas too.
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fcha PRO timwest
2 years ago
I'd like your opinion too about AT & T not much on the upside, but let see if can break .382 or .50 tomorrow cause I see a pattern there.
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fcha PRO fcha
2 years ago
Thank you, Tim!
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vlad.adrian PRO fcha
2 years ago
The situation with Crimea is affecting a lot the stock market. I preffer to stand aside. I closed my long on AT&T on breakeve, I lost the commision money tho. I'm out for now of this stock!
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fcha PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
ok
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fcha PRO timwest
2 years ago
I'd like your opinion and its easy to make decision to trade. Thanks! Let see tomorrow if the price can go up to .382.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
Thank you! This chart is really help me and make profit, I bought when the price is 31. Again, thanks!
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fcha PRO fcha
2 years ago
sorry, 31.85
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vlad.adrian PRO fcha
2 years ago
Your welcome!
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fcha PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Still make profit if I sell today.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
I still holding it.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
Broke the downtrend now.
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First target reached on 19.03.2014
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
Yes, I sold it and took profit about 33%.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
let see tomorrow, if its up gonna reach 38 and I will buy again.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
They predicted the price will be $38 in 12 months, its bullish.
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fcha PRO
2 years ago
Wow! Looks like will reach second target.
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Mirandole
2 years ago
Nice previsions :)
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vlad.adrian PRO Mirandole
2 years ago
Thank you, honestly I didn't expect this strong break, I expected a calmer rally
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Mirandole vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Do you think that the price will still go up ?
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vlad.adrian PRO Mirandole
2 years ago
Honestly, I don't know, but getting long now would be suicide. Wait for a decent retracement, the move is allready overextended. If I will spot a pattern I will post a chart :D
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Mirandole vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Thx man ! Look at my profil if you like some good charts. Just look at it and give me your opinion :)
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vlad.adrian PRO Mirandole
2 years ago
I can't really give you an opinion cause your charts are intraday, and I do not know intraday trading or charting. As far as I'm concercened, day trading and scalping are the hardest ways you can trade and should only be tried after you have a great experience and great results in trading on larger time frames. IMO, and I hope you won't take it as an insult, you should concentrate more on analysing larger time frames, because the signals are much reliable there than on intraday charts:D
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Mirandole vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Yeah you're fuckin' right ! :) And there is no insult there, only advice and I welcome it :)
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vlad.adrian PRO Mirandole
2 years ago
Glad you accept it!
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Second take profit reached on 21.03.2014
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afshin PRO vlad.adrian
2 years ago
Thumbs up!
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vlad.adrian PRO afshin
2 years ago
Thank you!
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