The return of solar! My pair trade idea: SHORT OIL & LONG SOLAR

I wanted to hop in the latest TradingView contest and present my pair trade idea.

This chart shows XLE vs. TAN.

XLE is the mostly oil ETF while TAN is the mostly solar ETF .

I think the recent spike in oil made perfect sense because of the supply disruptions, but I have also been following green energy for years now and the simple reality is that the technology behind green energy is improving each day in terms of efficiency and costs. The economics are improving.

Burn oil once, and it's gone forever.
Install a solar panel once and it produces energy forever.

The thesis is simple.

I actually think I might be in the minority here, but the recent rally in oil might the last rally in memory.

Today, about 5% of all cars are electric. In the next five years that should number should reach 15%. In my opinion, because of high oil prices, that number will actually be closer to 30% in 5 years. I would not be surprised to see companies like Exxon use their profits from this recent rally to acquire leading solar companies or energy companies. They know the shift is here. I wonder what will happen to all the gas stations on this planet - maybe they'll become little museums? Rest stations? Convert them into electric stations?

That's the idea. I am not even going to overthink it beyond that.

Green energy is renewable. Anyone who believes in frugality, thrift, and/or being self-sufficient should consider looking into green energy for the simple fact it embodies that spirit.

One more thing: I do think this trade will take two years to fully play out. I am not saying anyone will make money overnight on it. I do think it's worth adding to your watchlist and thinking about it well into the future.

I work at TradingView helping to build charts, tools, and software for everyone interested in financial markets.


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