Price finally hit the bottom of the wedge which I'm sure many other TELL traders were waiting for.
The thing is though, that the macro story for the core of their business has never been better as demand for natural gas and LNG transfer will only increase as geopolitical tension rises in the Middle East and Russia continues their offensive, all while Biden admin is on track to completely deplete the SPR for the sake of keeping US oil prices stable.
TELL has a huge opportunity to explode here...
Though, they are yet to find a partner to secure FID in the amount of I believe 14.5b for their Driftwood LNG plant in Louisiana. The longer they continue construction without this decision being made, the higher their bankruptcy risk becomes. As soon as they get it, however, investors will pile in money and the impact on price will be monstrous.
Positive developments in FID situation should bring us to dashed line.
Securing of FID could break the uptrend, in an overly optimistic case, and likely over a 1-2 year timeframe.
Personally am waiting for Monday open before I make any entry -- **If price breaks below bottom trendline, I would be very hesitant about entering a long until a reclaim.**
Please let me know your thoughts below.
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Exactly why waiting until Monday open is effective when price tanks Friday -- hits the bottom of trend but does not yet hit historical demand levels (double, triple bottom) at $0.70 and $0.50.
The trend can be reclaimed eventually, but the supply levels often must be hit so demand can finally present itself.
I am still waiting for $0.70.
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Previously marked worst-case scenario of $0.50 hit the previous week, seemed to hold up very well and price recoiled today's session.
Posted thoughts on entry/exit in comment section below.
In short -- wait for wedge reclaim or wait for strong green weekly candle to print. Or happily trade elsewhere while TELL goes bankrupt.
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Looks like TELL is going to close this week right above the lowest support level. This is a good sign since it didn't breach below, but bad that it couldn't close green and sustain Tuesday's spike.
However, looking at the monthly, if price were to close above $0.682 by December then consolidate, we could see enough steam to break back into trend and bring price to the upper red line, following through with the waves marked on this chart.
Completing Wave 1 will be a good enough sign to maybe buy the dip at Wave 2, but buying any before then comes with no guarantee of safety.
I got long just before the plunge.... how was this near 100$ a share... these types of things appear to be fraud
Jordsito
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@robed1 i believe TELL merged with a French gas company in late 2016, so any price before that was not relevant. But it is still a great question how this company was valued above $16 or even found stability above $6 pre-covid — yet to do so ever since. People expected TELL to succeed post-covid and through the EU gas supply shock prompted by the Russian invasion. Big disappointment, but let’s see if we can trade it well in the meantime.
gabrielmoon20
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Nice little pump today. What do you think about it now?
Jordsito
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@gabrielmoon20, A few days after posting this I marked support at $0.51 which dates back to Jan '16 and has held up well since. The volume yesterday was encouraging, but if the weekly candle turns red, it would not be a good sign. I personally think it is too risky to trade outside of the wedge.
Fundamentally, TELL only has about 60m left in cash and could potentially go bankrupt within 6-12 months if they don't secure financing for their main project, raising questions about whether or not you should stay away from this stock.
My advice is either: a. wait til green weekly candle to print by next Monday b. wait for wedge reclaim (~$0.88) c. save your money (and mental health) and stay away