TLRY has breached support in 2 major ways (MA and green line). I've talked about how TLRY is massively overvalued at these prices, best case scenario is a drop to green line at the bottom. This stock is VERY LIKELY to fall 50% in the coming months. That's being optimistic.
In the last post I made: I was bullish, but in the comments, you can see that I closed at about a 10% gain because I thought it was a bull trap. It looks like it just might have been.
Its market cap is 10,000x its revenue last I checked. TLRY is a baby and it's trading like a giant. It's going down. There's one question remaining: short here? I would go short, but only a small amount of the amount you plan to allocate to this market and have your stop above the previous high.
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I haven't been updating this market as much as I should have simply because I haven't been making it a priority. That is something I can be doing much better: trying to find as many markets as I can to test strategies on. The ONLY market I have a real EXPERTISE in is crypto. I SHOULD NOT be settling for this. You should be trying to learn as much about all markets as you can because in periods of low volatility, you're not going to make any money.
I'm not short here yet. On the weekly it's still consolidating although it appears a downtrend will emerge short term. I'm still optimistic long term. Not basing that on the chart but on the disruption legal marijuana in Canada will have on the sector. TLRY has gone down similar to Canadian marijuana companies in the last few weeks. Once more data from recreational sales and quarterly reports come in I think this sector will continue to climb. I expected a drop after legalization due to an over reaction and undeserved focus the market showed towards the day of legalization when the real focus for me is quarterly reports after legalization and other countries that are expected to legalize medicinal cannabis in the next 1-2 years. I don't disagree with your chart but I don't think charts should be too heavily relied on in markets like this that are about to undergo an unprecedented growth in revenue.
tradingview.com/chart/693Ol9js/
Trade_Integrity
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@rollz7272, Opps sorry I didn't mean to post the link with that... unrelated stock
CantorTechnologies
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@rollz7272, Eh, you are predicting that though. This is not something you can know because you cannot foresee the future. I'm just a trader, I don't know everything about business. If I see a bearish chart, I call it a bearish chart haha. But generally speaking, 10,000x times revenue is a bit to crazy to be legit. Even if they 10x the revenue, 1000x is still incredible. I posted this on my twitter, but for example, in income producing real estate, you have cap rates. A cap rate of 8-12 is standard. If I have a place that generates a 100k a year, I'll pay maybe a million for it for a 10cap. I would NOT pay 1 BILLION for it as is the case for TLRY. Just my thoughts.
@youngshkreli, yes it's definitely speculation. But a market exists now that didn't exist two weeks ago. A billion dollar market. What happens to companies when recreational marijuana sales goes form $0 to billions? No one really knows but speculatively the answer is up. Based on just the chart though, at least the weekly candle, I don't see a downtrend but a consolidation with a possible downtrend emerging over the next few days. Also TLRY hasn't been publicly traded long enough that I'd rely too heavily on most indicators. Compared to the rest of the sector it is performing more or less equally, attribute the current sell off to some profit taking and a little bit of overbuying, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce.
CantorTechnologies
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@rollz7272, I think people are going to be shorting the shit out of it as well haha. I'm sure everyone who runs a fund is trying to short this bad boy. It seems a lot like bitcoin to be honest. Retail buys like crazy and pros have no way to bet on the action, then that opportunity comes and price crashes.
CantorTechnologies
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@youngshkreli, I just can't see it working out well short term, there growth last year was about 100% revenue. They'd need 1000% for me to think there's a chance of this price sustaining.
tradingview.com/chart/693Ol9js/