TLRY – Macro Elliott Wave Structure
The 2018 IPO spike to the split-adjusted $3000 represents a speculative blow-off and is not counted as part of a standard Elliott impulse. This type of parabolic launch is treated as an exogenous event, followed by a full corrective cycle.
The true Elliott structure begins after the collapse from the IPO high into the 2019–2020 lows:
• Cycle / Primary A: 2018–2020 impulsive liquidation from IPO mania
• Cycle / Primary B: 2020–2021 corrective recovery (ABC structure, bull trap)
• Cycle / Primary C: 2021–present extended decline, now in its final stages
Primary C is subdividing into Intermediate (1)–(5). Intermediate (3) likely terminated near 3.51, followed by the current Intermediate (4) relief rally. The advance from 3.51 remains corrective (overlapping internals, no Wave-3 acceleration, RSI flattening), supporting the view that Intermediate (5) is still ahead.
Primary C has not yet achieved typical Fibonacci symmetry versus Primary A. Confluence for Intermediate (5) termination currently clusters at $1.50
Base case (~70%):
Intermediate (5) completes into the $1.50 region, finishing Primary C and setting up a multi-month reversal.
Post-C expectations:
• Initial rebound: 3.2–3.6
• Larger retrace: 6–8 (0.382–0.5 of Primary C)
• Sustained acceptance above 13–15 would confirm a higher-degree trend change.
Alternate (~30%):
Only a clean impulsive advance (5 up on lower TFs) with acceptance above former resistance (~6) and expanding momentum would allow 3.51 to be reconsidered as the Primary C low.
Timing (rough guide):
Based on channel symmetry and prior C-wave duration, Intermediate (5) is likely to resolve within 4–12 weeks, with volatility expected to increase into termination.
Until impulsive upside structure appears, rallies are treated as corrective moves inside Primary C.
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The 2018 IPO spike to the split-adjusted $3000 represents a speculative blow-off and is not counted as part of a standard Elliott impulse. This type of parabolic launch is treated as an exogenous event, followed by a full corrective cycle.
The true Elliott structure begins after the collapse from the IPO high into the 2019–2020 lows:
• Cycle / Primary A: 2018–2020 impulsive liquidation from IPO mania
• Cycle / Primary B: 2020–2021 corrective recovery (ABC structure, bull trap)
• Cycle / Primary C: 2021–present extended decline, now in its final stages
Primary C is subdividing into Intermediate (1)–(5). Intermediate (3) likely terminated near 3.51, followed by the current Intermediate (4) relief rally. The advance from 3.51 remains corrective (overlapping internals, no Wave-3 acceleration, RSI flattening), supporting the view that Intermediate (5) is still ahead.
Primary C has not yet achieved typical Fibonacci symmetry versus Primary A. Confluence for Intermediate (5) termination currently clusters at $1.50
Base case (~70%):
Intermediate (5) completes into the $1.50 region, finishing Primary C and setting up a multi-month reversal.
Post-C expectations:
• Initial rebound: 3.2–3.6
• Larger retrace: 6–8 (0.382–0.5 of Primary C)
• Sustained acceptance above 13–15 would confirm a higher-degree trend change.
Alternate (~30%):
Only a clean impulsive advance (5 up on lower TFs) with acceptance above former resistance (~6) and expanding momentum would allow 3.51 to be reconsidered as the Primary C low.
Timing (rough guide):
Based on channel symmetry and prior C-wave duration, Intermediate (5) is likely to resolve within 4–12 weeks, with volatility expected to increase into termination.
Until impulsive upside structure appears, rallies are treated as corrective moves inside Primary C.
Like and follow for more charts like this.
In technical analysis, several methods focus on higher timeframes to provide a broader, more reliable context for trading or investment decisions. Elliott Wave Principle generally considers historical higher timeframes as mandatory.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
In technical analysis, several methods focus on higher timeframes to provide a broader, more reliable context for trading or investment decisions. Elliott Wave Principle generally considers historical higher timeframes as mandatory.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.