TLRY appears to be consolidating my previous first target 1:0.618 @ $3.42 just as NDX looks set to break out and so I think this is the anchoring fib that will prove to either be the bottom or a significant low.
Also earnings is coming up shortly and would you believe the 1:1 fib time extension for this 3 wave pattern is almost exactly at earnings.
Its as if its been scripted 😄.
So I think TLRY is about to rocket 🚀.
Bought LEAP puts due to high IV which can pay for my calls, alternatively can buy the stock.
Not advice.
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TLRY opening bearish short term here. Will probably re-test the fib. Calls sold.
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Week closed to print a big shooting star candle and it definitely needs to be respected. Stars are almost always bad new and NDX looks set to have a bearish interlude.
That said on the daily time frame it does look like it may be reacting to a first impulsive move and may roll down to see another stronger thrust upward.
But it must not become impulsive to the downside. If more candles like the last 2 print then it'll be time to GTFO of the way and wait for a better entry.
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TLRY has held up well compared to other stocks here and is back at the long term fib which is also 0.618 retracement. Also NDX is at support which was my first target for making re-entries, so i've bought a 2024 ATM call to go with the leap short put I already have.
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TRLY breaking down from the fib here. I dont like that it plunged 2% with NDX up 2% - thats not a good sign so i've sold my call but kept my short put.
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I'll see how its looking a bit closer to earnings.
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I've now exited TLRY entirely. My entry was on the basis that it was consolidating the long term 1:0.618 but the recent high now appears it will be a wicked shakeout reversal pattern. And with a monthly close approaching I wont be holding through earning with a candle like this.
Arrows point to similar candles and you can see that it leads to downside every time. And who knows maybe it pops this time but there's really no need to take unnecessary risk. I'll just return to the side-lines and be patient. All WEED printing bearish monthly candles.
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Having hopped back above the fib and having a good pump yesterday TLRY looks back on track for the reversal here.
I've made a small entry and will buy more as it moves up or returns to the fib. I think there is a good chance it may pull back towards the fib again, but who knows maybe this is blast off right here! I would guess the pull back though.
1:1 time fib coming up adds confluence for the reversal.
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Indexes are perhaps ready to turn south and it looks like TLRY is also. This imo could be a generational buy opportunity, but I'm going to wait a bit before I buy anymore because I think a collapse back towards the fib is coming.
Anywhere in this area can be a great buy i think, but i will be looking to indexes also to see where to buy and i think TLRY will go lower.
Not advice.
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Glorious pumpai today. That said I expect a pull back at some point in consideration of indexes.
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Apologies for not updating, this is one that slipped trough the net.
So regarding TLRY next step it is 100% dependent on Nasdaq and whether it is going to retrace or find a new low.
For reasons that i've written about in my SPX thread this time around I am starting to favour the lower low scenario and that would lead to TLRY moving down to the next fib which I think would be $0.06.
However there is no need to make that judgement, just to watch the markets and see how TLRY and NDX move over the next weeks.
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Despite a wild earnings pump dump TLRY is looking bearish here.
Hey, interesting insight. Can you please message me ? I don't have enough points to message you. Would love to chat about these levels
Long_is_Good
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Doesn't it go down to 0.6$?
dRends35
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@Long_is_Good, $0.6 is the next long range fib target and it may still get there in time, but right here there appears to be plenty of factor it will be the $3.42 fib.
psbassin
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@dRends35, Thought you'd want to know this info that just came out late Friday night from Fintel website: 2022-07-22 - Tilray, Inc. has filed an SC 13D form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) disclosing ownership of 564,235,830 shares of HEXO Corp. (US:HEXO). This represents 48.0 percent ownership of the company.