Tilray: Will It Ever Bounce Back? Not Anytime Soon.
Over the past how many months, especially on Tradingview, you have heard that Tilray is going to make some epic comeback just because how exponentially negative and horrific the chart and trend-line looks. But will it? The short answer is: yes, but not for a while.
As I have said many times, you cannot just focus on trends to determine a stock's cycle. In terms of Gold/Silver - geopolitical, political and monetary policy matters tremendously. In this instance - Tilray - you always have to look at the performance of the sector, technicals, analytics, the company, and importantly, the balance sheet. For Tilray, the balance sheet looks abysmal until at-least 2022-2023.
Tilray has gone under major business and core competency changes that in my opinion will keep it from actually breaking out above its major resistance near 52.50-52.86. Sure, it'll bounce around from 40-49 for a while, but who cares. Compounded by the fact that Tilray is expected to continue to LOSE money for at-least the next 2-3 years, and, that we are likely entering a global recession in 2020 I don't suspect will see anywhere near a 3x ROE for 3-4 years (i.e. when the stock hits 100.00 again or more).
Keep in mind that recently, much of the Cannabis sector has tried to rebound, however, Tilray has failed to break-out over 4 times since June. Tilray is starting to look a lot like (ticker: MAXR) - a super long upswing that may take 3, 4 or 5 years before it gets anywhere exciting.
Having said that, if you can buy-in under 40.00, I would definitely throw at-least a few thousand dollars into the stock as it will likely not fall below 35.00 - period.
I am predicting earnings (which will be released in the next week) to decline, which could push Tilray back into a buy range (38-39.00 or lower).
- zSplit
As I have said many times, you cannot just focus on trends to determine a stock's cycle. In terms of Gold/Silver - geopolitical, political and monetary policy matters tremendously. In this instance - Tilray - you always have to look at the performance of the sector, technicals, analytics, the company, and importantly, the balance sheet. For Tilray, the balance sheet looks abysmal until at-least 2022-2023.
Tilray has gone under major business and core competency changes that in my opinion will keep it from actually breaking out above its major resistance near 52.50-52.86. Sure, it'll bounce around from 40-49 for a while, but who cares. Compounded by the fact that Tilray is expected to continue to LOSE money for at-least the next 2-3 years, and, that we are likely entering a global recession in 2020 I don't suspect will see anywhere near a 3x ROE for 3-4 years (i.e. when the stock hits 100.00 again or more).
Keep in mind that recently, much of the Cannabis sector has tried to rebound, however, Tilray has failed to break-out over 4 times since June. Tilray is starting to look a lot like (ticker: MAXR) - a super long upswing that may take 3, 4 or 5 years before it gets anywhere exciting.
Having said that, if you can buy-in under 40.00, I would definitely throw at-least a few thousand dollars into the stock as it will likely not fall below 35.00 - period.
I am predicting earnings (which will be released in the next week) to decline, which could push Tilray back into a buy range (38-39.00 or lower).
- zSplit
