teh_salesman

Time to buy the dip

Long
NASDAQ:TLRY   Tilray, Inc. - Class 2
Falling wedge reversal pattern.
Still not very experienced with Elliott Wave Theory, but I do believe there is a crystal clear 5-3-5 ABC pattern close to completing.
Price is situated on very strong support spanning the past year and a half.
MACD attempting to cross bull.

RSI on weekly has broken slightly below 40 RSI which was historically very strong resistance.

With earnings right around the corner, keep an eye on this and ACB .
Comment: "Bill To Federally Legalize Marijuana Approved By Key House Committee"

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/watch-li...

Hmmm.
Comment: RSI says someone is accumulating.

1D

4H

2H

15M

The 15m is especially telling. There seems to be a very clear and concise trend line support + resistance flip on this time frame.
Currently, 40 RSI seems to be the only major resistance. Granted this is a really low time frame, but it is in my opinion giving early signals of price reversal.
Comment: Earnings pre-market tomorrow.

TLRY as we speak is up 3.43% to $11.16 tomorrow.
I've seen this before but maybe this time is different™?
Comment: At this point I am beginning to wonder if I'm just outright completely wrong on this idea. My main basis for it in the first place was the wedge, which I believe I may have drawn the support of incorrectly: see below. Secondly, weekly RSI has now broken decisively below 40. Third, what should have been major price support at $11.60 cleanly broke. To note, my third point is actually very bullish in my opinion.

It seems as though price has already broken well below the (What should now be correctly drawn below) wedge and now into the gap territory. This could, however, be a what I *think* is known as an 'ending diagonal throw-over' of the corrective wave C in Elliott Wave. Essentially, it means it's a fake break of support while simultaneously completing the entire correction. The buy volume on the ER Thursday potentially supports this theory.

My main concern here overall is the legalization circumstances. It appears as though the U.S. is strongly lagging behind in that effort while European countries seem to be pushing for it. Though Elliott Wave is more of a speculation guide on where reversals may occur, EWT shows that sentiment/news is still strongly bearish right before and immediately after the end of a correction or the beginning of a bullish impulse wave. I've noticed some upticks in conversation regarding TLRY recently on social media, but the sentiment is still strongly bearish. The main chatter I've noticed though is something I've seen time and again, which supports my theory that the correction is potentially either over completely or very close to it.

The gap is where I initially thought price would go myself in the event the wedge was wrong. As the screenshot shows, the wedge broke to the downside and is now cents away from partial fill. If TLRY truly is/was strongly bearish yet, I would think there would be a strong impulse to the downside on volume after the second rejection to get back above support. That doesn't seem to be happening here, at least yet.

Weekly RSI *seems* to want to enter oversold territory, but something tells me even if it does it won't close there. Price seems to be consolidating after breaking wedge support. On the weekly, this is also very strong secondary price support. I've labeled what I believe to be the 2 strongest price support zones, and currently TLRY is 11 cents below the secondary support of the first zone. I'd be surprised to not see a bounce here. If price breaks here regardless of volume, the next zone in my opinion begins at $9.20.

Another few things to note are the bi-monthly and quarterly candle closes. The quarterly candle opened at the beginning of this month, while the bi-monthly still has 3 weeks to go. Considering those facts, I am thinking there may be a lot of sideways action to shake people out until November where markup would begin if this idea is correct.

3M:

2M:

The 21 monthly MA held as support for 7 months with last month breaking and closing below it. Although most would consider this bearish, I consider this very bullish:

Regardless of where price goes from here on out, I personally believe anything below the support of $11.60 is a strong buy. Especially if we were to see a decent move to the downside. If we see price consolidating as it is now for the next few weeks, or even a move upwards, I believe the correction is finished and TLRY will begin markup before the new year.

In conclusion, I do not think there will be a full gap fill as there are a lot of people who would be ecstatic at that idea. I personally see TLRY having either finished the correction and moving up/going sideways from here, or maybe a very partial fill and then markup from there. I'm an idiot though so I gas whale c.
Comment: Personally, I think next week will be very telling of TLRY's direction.
Comment: Pop goes the weasel.

There is a very similar fractal pattern that played out before, a large pop on volume followed by consolidation lower. Will that happen again or is TLRY's correction in fact actually finished?