649bruno
Short

TLT: After Long Positive Run A New Bearish Trend Has Begun

NASDAQ:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF
26 0 6
I have been bullish on-TLT for a long time. Last week I saw signs of negative action and I sold my position.
Here are THE DIRTY DOZEN negatives I see in-TLT, and why I feel this is a sell (With my apologies to the 1967 movie "The Dirty Dozen"):

1. Sell Fractal in effect (red rectangle on chart.
2. Alligator jaws opened in tandem with sell Fractal. Alligator feeding in down-trend. THIS IS YOUR COMPASS.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) is about to go BELOW the shaded area. This indicates a TREND. THIS MEANS INDICATORS WILL WORK BETTER.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is heading LOWER. The action is below the zero line.
5. Momentum (middle top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is bearish action and is heading lower. Histogram within is also under zero line.
6. Prices are trading BELOW the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud . This is a sell signal.
9. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This is a sell signal.
9. The red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
10. The Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud direction is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
11. The CHOP ZONE indicator (under chart) is red, indicating a down trend.
12. RSI/ Stochastic (top) is heading lower after a bearish cross. Yes, it is over-sold, but it will most likely not spark any meaningful upside action.
In my opinion-TLT is heading LOWER. I have given you a dozen negative signs as my objective evidence.
I have also placed RED VERTICAL BARS on the chart so you can see how CHOP, FRACTALS, and the INDICATORS work with each other.
As the CHOP heads below the shaded area, trigger points occur, in this instance down (red vertical bars for DOWN).
IMPORTANT: IF CHOP MOVES BELOW THE SHADED AREA, AND YOU STILL HAVE THE NEGATIVE INDICATORS, THE DOWN TREND GETS STRONGER.
Because of the recent sell Fractal and other negative signs, its hard for me to envision TLT-heading into a new up-trend.
If you are long-TLT, I would exit your position.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
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