Stocks and Bonds have been grinding higher together off the March lows, but it looks like that relationship may be coming to an end as TLT is looking more and more like a rounded top while SPY continues to work out a constructive bottom and make higher highs... Watching closely as this can change fast with the resilience in bonds making us wary of the recent rally in stocks.
OEX and Nasdaq trading above 200 DMA which is a very good sign. I think TLT will go in opposite direction.
If you chart TLT over 20 years, you will see that it habitually regresses to the mean - and that appears to be the 50 month MA (or 200 week MA). So target price would be in range of 123-124...you can short or buy long puts. December 2020 or longer.
If interest rates go negative, long term rates may be effected but most of the carnage is baked into the market prices. The yield curve is actually looking much better - 10 year rate is about 0.68, 20 year is 1.12 and 30 year rate about 1.40 and climbing...
I think (dangerous words) that yield curve will keep improving and long term rates will go back to 1.77 - 2-55 which will cause TLT to head south for the winter. IMO
If you chart TLT over 20 years, you will see that it habitually regresses to the mean - and that appears to be the 50 month MA (or 200 week MA). So target price would be in range of 123-124...you can short or buy long puts. December 2020 or longer.
If interest rates go negative, long term rates may be effected but most of the carnage is baked into the market prices. The yield curve is actually looking much better - 10 year rate is about 0.68, 20 year is 1.12 and 30 year rate about 1.40 and climbing...
I think (dangerous words) that yield curve will keep improving and long term rates will go back to 1.77 - 2-55 which will cause TLT to head south for the winter. IMO