timwest
Long

20+ Year Trsy Bond Ishares TLT - 5day - Mimic Last Two Major +/-

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
214 6 3
If TLT             moved the same way it did during the last major BULL market move (light blue) and the INVERSE of the last major BEAR market move (light green) then it would be right on track here on this pullback. Of course, this would mean that we would be going into a black hole in the economy of deflation and zero economic growth.

I thought this was interesting - It's a different way of looking at trend, that's for sure. An uptrend is the same as a downtrend, just a different direction.

Also, note that this is a 5-day chart and not a weekly chart. See if you can see the difference.

Tim 111.54 last -0.03 on Wednesday, Jun 4, 2014 10:40AM EST
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Did not quite catch why did you project an inverse of a bear? I mean, If you take a line from the lower point A to a higher point B, and copy it, then take the line from the higher point B to the lower point C that is ultimately on the same level as A, and invert it - the top mark would be the same yes. But what is the interesting part?
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I project it inversely because it is how the market moves and it is just a comparison. The trends look remarkably similar even though one is a mirror of itself.
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With this, see this chart to add to the point of why TLT would go up
Lower EURUSD seems to favor TLT
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2use, I looked at it - but not sure how to implement that information. I watch the headlines and the fundamentals as much as possible, so clearly a rising TLT would be helped by falling rates and falling currencies abroad as foreign investors flock to the safe-haven of the US, but the correlation is loose and the time frame is quite long term for the time frame that I am looking at. I appreciate any and all ideas. Thanks. Tim
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2use timwest
But you do hold assests like Silver for a longer than 6 months term? I see that as the following possible case. Should Euro rise due to the news coming out this week (or dollar fall) the Eur/USD will go up. Generally Euro has not been performing bad so it is a possible case - one of the reasons for dollar to go down is in case summer does indeed bring some correction. With this, if TLT does follow the trend and lean lower, then this does come into a more probably picture than TLT breaking resistance, Euro dropping and dollar to go that high up (don't see possible news or events making such a great leap happen at the moment).

About the grain - well 5d is close to weekly for me :D so i thought it would be closer than daily-to-weekly
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Hello 2use, I'm trying to follow your logic, but looking forward to your charts with trade ideas. All the best, Tim
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