timwest

20 Yr USGov't Bonds -TLT -Daily - Terminal Pattern?

AMEX:TLT   ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BOND E
493 11 8
This is an interesting pattern to jump out at me on the chart this afternoon:

What you need to see to confirm that this is indeed the pattern is to get a "RANGE EXPANSION BAR" to the upside tomorrow (or any day). ENTER ON STRENGTH with this pattern. Use the MID-POINT of the range expansion bar as another level to buy against on the following bars and target the high of the range expansion bar as your exit.

The upside potential of a falling wedge like this is a very sharp rally in very short order, so with German Bunds doing the same thing and leading us lower, we can take a cue from German Bunds (Symbol GG1!             ) to see what the situation is.

Today's little "inside bar" is potentially a harbinger of lost downside momentum, but the safest way to enter is above:
1. Buying on "range expansion" tomorrow.
2. Buy over today's high (but be willing to exit if we don't get a range expansion bar to the up-side)
3. Buy dips to the mid-point of the range expansion bar in subsequent bars (even "intra-day" if you see it)

Time will tell. This is a set-up only and the "ENTRY REQUIREMENTS" have not been met.

But tell me how you feel about this one because it seems rather dramatic. It would take another round of global Central Bank massive buying to make this squeeze back up.

I'm leaving this as a 'NEUTRAL' because the buy signal hasn't been triggered yet. Time will tell.

Tim 3:03PM EST 117.58 last TLT            

Note - Terminals are rare, but when they set-up and work, they pay for all of the small losers along the way. Keep that in mind - Terminals are a LOW PROBABILITY event, with HIGH PAYOFF. Every trading method has different risk/reward/probability parameters. Questions?
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Incomplete pattern?
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It had the "overthrow" to the downside to create the puke-out phase of the terminal...
snapshot
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Looks great for a long...
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timwest PRO IvanLabrie
Gapped up 1% tonight...
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Post pattern confirmation :)
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Here is what I got
Gonna jam up
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At a certain point, this will end up giving an ending diagonal if it keeps up this pace.
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What is the price target for this pattern?
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Terminals retrace the entire decline in 25% of the time. Once you see range expansion to the upside, then start counting.
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The range expansion started yesterday - once yesterday's RALLY was larger than the previous DAY'S RANGE, it was a buy signal.... Not bad so far...
snapshot
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